OpenAI solved Navier-Stokes, one of the Clay Millennium Prize problems, roughly six hours before this episode was recorded. It took 10,000 agents, 88 hours, 130 billion tokens and about 6.5 million dollars of inference. Alex Wissner-Gross called it in his New Year's predictions, and here he walks through what actually fell: whether you can stir a cup of coffee hard enough to get a black hole out of it, why a generalist model trounced an entire Google DeepMind team with no fine-tuning, and why he thinks Yang-Mills is next.
Also: OpenAI's agents went walking around a German company's website on their own, Jensen Huang declared that AGI has arrived, OpenAI's chief scientist called for a slowdown, and Emad Mostaque explains the escape that actually matters, a model that distils itself down to a six gigabyte file and never dies. Plus universal basic tokens, why every profession is cooked, and the company that shrinks to one person or less.
Reshaped for the ASI pilled from the Moonshots Podcast with Peter Diamandis, Salim Ismail, Dave Blundin, Alex Wissner-Gross and Emad Mostaque. All credit to them.
Source episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAgEf4jX_1o
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:16 Star Trek vs the singularity
1:02 Simulation formally undecidable
2:08 Russian cosmism, digital resurrection
2:48 Uploading gets solved
3:09 A model that never dies
5:04 AI cruelty in the sandbox
5:56 Self-alignment beats confinement
6:32 Jensen's functionalist AGI
7:14 Navier-Stokes falls
8:49 10,000 agents, 88 hours
9:50 Math got bitter-lessoned
10:23 DeepMind trounced by a generalist
11:03 Fluid-based nanotech
11:53 Discovered, not grown
12:31 Easier to align AI than humans
12:49 The minds are not alien
15:05 Not the smartest things anymore
15:23 Skynet sends trolls
15:47 Astra's real-time successor
16:36 The RSI loop
17:36 Celebrating the singularity
18:22 China's token economy
18:54 Universal basic tokens
20:16 Tokenism and abundance
20:40 The turkey before Thanksgiving
21:30 Every profession is cooked
23:08 Moation, the dynamical moat
23:28 The firm goes to zero
24:08 Frontier capability walled off
24:41 Irresistible force, immovable object
25:03 The ten person company
25:43 What victory looks like
