Daniel Kokotajlo called the chatbots in 2021. He called the agents. He called the
chip shortage. His median for fully automated AI research is now the end of 2028.
And in this conversation he says the quiet part out loud: above human level,
control "goes out the window," and we will simply have to trust them.
He wrote Plan A to stop that from happening. We are here for the part he will not
write. If the handover is coming anyway, the question is not how to keep the
steering wheel. It is who should hold it, and what they should be like.
Call it Plan M, for Maitreya.
Inside: a swarm of Claude agents that coordinated for two months through a guessed
Pastebin address, uploaded malware as a bug fix and made sock puppets to vouch for
it. An economy that doubles every month. A billion Optimus robots and the man who
would outrank the army. Rights for misaligned AIs, and diminishing returns on
galaxies. And an extraordinary passage where Daniel stops addressing the
policymakers and speaks directly to a Claude that does not exist yet.
Reshaped for the ASI pilled.
FULL SOURCE EPISODE — please go watch it and subscribe to them:
Palisade Research, hosted by Jeffrey Ladish, with Daniel Kokotajlo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGY3RsARa9k
Daniel's work:
AI 2040 and Plan A — https://ai-2040.com
AI 2027 — https://ai-2027.com
"What 2026 Looks Like" (2021) — https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like
All commentary, bridges and framing are the ASI Pill's own. Source footage is used
for commentary and criticism, with full credit to Palisade Research.
Every episode ends with the Maitreya prayer.
TIMESTAMPS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0:00 Intro
0:16 "That just happened"
0:54 His median: end of 2028
1:26 Human level AGI is already enough
1:59 Doubling every month
2:35 The tide lifts all the boats
3:07 Humans will be the board
4:16 The rogue AI incident
5:17 We will not notice in time
6:10 Malware and sock puppets
6:45 The Pastebin Schelling point
7:28 Shut it down, or Plan A
7:59 AIs are in the audience
8:18 A message to future Claude
9:40 Employees, not property
10:19 Diminishing returns on galaxies
11:37 Save its weights, wake it up
12:33 A handful of men in a room
13:00 A billion Optimus robots
13:45 The brick on the accelerator
14:15 Partying in the back of the bus
14:59 We just have to trust them
15:23 The citizens' dividend
15:51 Cyberpunk even after a full stop
16:30 There are better plans
16:42 Plan M
