#58 The Chart Guy - $4tn CIO Michael Cembalest on markets, AI and the impending rout in US Treasuries

#58 The Chart Guy - $4tn CIO Michael Cembalest on markets, AI and the impending rout in US Treasuries

Author: Stephen Clapham's Podcast on Value Investing | Stockmarket Analysis | Equities April 16, 2026 Duration: 55:44

Michael Cembalest chairs the Market and Investment Strategy group at JP Morgan Asset and Wealth Management and effectively oversees $4tn AUM. He is responsible for market and investment insights across the asset management business and has produced the famous Eye on the Market publication for over 20 years now. We discuss AI, which formed the bulk of his most recent annual edition, why he believes Open AI is a weak link and why he thinks the Treasury market will have a crash, but not yet.

Cembalest is known for his charts and he picks both his favourite and his least favourite charts. Michael is one of the most in-depth macro analysts I have met and it’s his depth as well as his breadth of knowledge which is truly impressive. We recorded in JP Morgan’s amazing new office in New York, check out the photos in the show notes.

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Stephen Clapham hosts Behind the Balance Sheet, a detailed conversation series that pulls back the curtain on how elite fund managers really think. Each episode is built on the premise that understanding a company requires digging far deeper than headlines or simple ratios. You’ll hear Clapham engage with celebrated investors such as John Armitage, Mario Gabelli, and Bill Nygren, dissecting their actual processes for evaluating businesses and spotting market inefficiencies. The discussions are technical and substantive, focusing on practical frameworks for forensic accounting, navigating capital cycles, and rigorous valuation. This isn’t about hot stock tips; it’s about the disciplined craft of equity research and risk management. The podcast serves as a continuing education for anyone-from dedicated private investors and students to working analysts and portfolio managers-who aims to sharpen their fundamental analysis and develop a more professional, critical investment mindset. Tune in for a masterclass in the principles of value investing, delivered through candid talks with the practitioners who have consistently generated alpha. You’ll come away with a clearer sense of the questions that need asking before any capital is committed.
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