Analysts' vs The Market | Volatility | Kalshi Prediction Markets Arizona Lawsuit | Breakeven Rates

Analysts' vs The Market | Volatility | Kalshi Prediction Markets Arizona Lawsuit | Breakeven Rates

Author: Derek Moore March 22, 2026 Duration: 58:27

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner where they get into a discussion around the market moving lower, lowering the forward PE, and analysts haven't budged their estimates yet. So, who's right and who's wrong? Then they go through the volatility environment and whether this is a normal midterm year pullback reminding everyone this is pretty typical. Later, they get into Arizona suing Kalshi and whether prediction markets (or betting) belong under the CFTC.

 

Vix and VVIX

Volatility in markets

CFTC as regulator of prediction markets

Who needs prediction markets?

Arizona sues Kalshi

Forward PE multiples drop

While EPS forward estimates rise

When will analysts start adjusting their EPS estimates?

What are breakeven inflation rates

Why breakeven rates historically haven't been a great predictor of future inflation

 

Mentioned in this Episode

 

Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509

 

Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp

 

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

 

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com


Derek Moore hosts Broken Pie Chart, a podcast that digs into the practical realities of managing money in a complex world. The name comes from the idea that traditional, rigid models for investing and planning often don't reflect real life. Each episode takes a specific concept-whether it's portfolio construction, market behavior, or preparing for retirement-and breaks it down into straightforward conversation. You'll hear clear explanations of economic trends and financial principles without the jargon, focusing on how these ideas actually impact personal and professional decisions. This isn't about hot stock tips; it's about building a durable understanding of how markets and the economy function. The goal is to provide listeners with a stronger foundation for their own financial choices, making seemingly opaque topics accessible and relevant. Tune in for a thoughtful, grounded perspective that challenges conventional wisdom and simplifies the complicated.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

Broken Pie Chart
Podcast Episodes
INTC vs NVDA | Prediction Markets Scam | Mag 7 Big Earnings Week [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:00:08
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to talk about semiconductors and the relative surprising performance of Intel vs Nvidia. Plus, they examine forward PE ratios and how stocks making new all-time high…