Back in Correction? | Recession? | Atlanta FED GDP Now | S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update | Useless Fed Dot Plots | 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet | Implied Volatility

Back in Correction? | Recession? | Atlanta FED GDP Now | S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update | Useless Fed Dot Plots | 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet | Implied Volatility

Author: Derek Moore March 31, 2025 Duration: 41:58

Derek Moore reviews two paths for market post -10% correction with and without

a recession. Plus, talking through the difference between expectations miss vs the

actual data through the lens of YoY PCE Core Inflation. Later, confidence in the

stock market plummeted. Oh, and like clockwork, the first investment bank

lowered its year end S&P 500 Index price target and 12-month forward earnings

outlook. Are more coming? And what is going on with the Atlanta Fed GDP now

model? Tune in for this and more this week.

Recession or not in next year may determine market returns from here

Inflation Head Fake but everyone worries

S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update as Barclays lowers EPS and price targets

1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet over the last 2 months, largest in 40 years

Implied Volatility pointing to 1.5% 1 standard deviation daily moves in S&P 500

Market sentiment is in the dumpster but is it too much given where markets are?

Markets got back down to over -9% pullback from all-time high

Mentioned in this Episode

Atlanta Fed GDP Now Model https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab1 

ECON PI http://econpi.com/index.php 

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT 

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt 

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag 

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com 


Derek Moore hosts Broken Pie Chart, a podcast that digs into the practical realities of managing money in a complex world. The name comes from the idea that traditional, rigid models for investing and planning often don't reflect real life. Each episode takes a specific concept-whether it's portfolio construction, market behavior, or preparing for retirement-and breaks it down into straightforward conversation. You'll hear clear explanations of economic trends and financial principles without the jargon, focusing on how these ideas actually impact personal and professional decisions. This isn't about hot stock tips; it's about building a durable understanding of how markets and the economy function. The goal is to provide listeners with a stronger foundation for their own financial choices, making seemingly opaque topics accessible and relevant. Tune in for a thoughtful, grounded perspective that challenges conventional wisdom and simplifies the complicated.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

Broken Pie Chart
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