Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about a jobs report the market read as bad news is good news: payrolls up just 23,000 versus 80,000 expected, the prior two months revised down by 103,000, and participation slipping to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021, even as unemployment fell to 4.1%. Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already weighing on the labor market, yet overnight index swaps still price about 1.7 hikes by mid-2027 — so are hikes really off the table? Plus, the US Dollar Index breakout, why there aren't 10% pre-tax US Treasuries, and how the SpaceX share unlock could lift its Nasdaq-100 weight from roughly 1.3% to 3.1%.
Nonfarm payrolls added just 23,000 jobs in July versus 80,000 expected.
The prior two months were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs.
Private payrolls rose 30,000 and manufacturing added 5,000.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.
Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already hurting the labor market and hikes aren't justified.
Labor force participation fell to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021 per Charlie Bilello.
Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% year over year versus 3.5% expected.
Overnight index swaps now price about 1.7 hikes by mid-2027 with the implied rate near 4.05%.
Why is the market pricing hikes rather than cuts after a soft jobs number?
J.C. Parets asks whether the US Dollar Index breakout is a big deal.
What a stronger dollar means for multinationals and commodities.
Eric Balchunas notes the Middle East oil shipping futures ETF is up 1,294% year to date
Drewry's WCI container freight benchmark sits at 4,297.46 per 40-foot box
What rising freight and shipping rates signal about goods inflation ahead.
How Nasdaq-100 weighs an adjusted market cap: SpaceX at roughly $1.5 trillion with about 5% free float SpaceX has a 15% factor, or about $225 billion effective cap and roughly a 1.3% index weight. If free float jumps to 12%, the factor jumps to 36%, based on today's price would raise weight to 3.1%
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
