Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about Big Oil posting its best free cash flow quarter ever, $70 billion across the top five majors, without the war-driven price spike that powered the last record. Plus, gold pushing back higher as ETF flows return, the Citi global economic surprise index at its highest since 2022, an AI capex boom that lands as an import drag on GDP, midterm year seasonality, and a housing market where buyers have gone missing while prices sit at records. All that and more this week.
The top five international oil majors generated $70 billion in free cash flow last quarter.
That tops the previous high set during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Tobias Carlisle credits cost discipline, portfolio high-grading, and capital restraint.
Is record oil profitability without a price spike a sign of structural improvement?
Luke Kawa flags the Citi global economic surprise index at 41.6, highest since April 2022.
Weakness in long-term government bonds around the world may be a good news story.
Term premiums in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan have shifted since Warsh's first FOMC.
Gold has climbed from the low $3,000s an ounce last August to near $5,500 today.
Goldman Sachs data shows spot gold ETF flows turning positive again alongside performance.
Liz Ann Sonders shows the AI capex boom driving imports while exports stay muted.
Net exports remain a drag on real GDP even as fixed investment keeps growing.
Seasonality shows the S&P 500's typical midterm election year path over 99 years.
Schwab data breaks down which sectors have stocks at four-week and 52-week highs.
The Daily Shot shows the housing buyer and seller mismatch has flipped since 2021-2022.
The number of home buyers has fallen to a record low, widening the gap with sellers.
Case-Shiller's national home price index hit a record 335.10 as of May 31, 2026.
Charlie Bilello notes the median monthly mortgage payment went from $862 to $2,240.
Mortgage rates went from 3.4% to 6.7% and median prices from $243k to $434k in a decade.
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
