Bond Rates Staying Higher | Forward PE Multiples | Implied Volatility During Earnings | Nominal GDP vs 10 Year Yield

Bond Rates Staying Higher | Forward PE Multiples | Implied Volatility During Earnings | Nominal GDP vs 10 Year Yield

Author: Derek Moore February 17, 2025 Duration: 36:46

Derek Moore revisits the 1994-95 interest rate and market environment against the current backdrop regarding treasury yields and future S&P 500 Index returns. Plus, going through the case for higher for longer, whether that is good or bad for markets, and the adjustment the market would need to go through. Later, quantifying how sensitive the S&P 500 Index is to change in the forward PE ratio by putting into actual numbers and levels. Also, looking at Arista Networks and Alibaba before earnings and what the options market is saying their expected one standard deviation moves might be up or down. Finally, most people look at Real Inflation adjusted GDP, but Nominal GDP growth may be correlated to the 10-year yield and what that means if we go back to pre-GFC nominal growth rates. All this and more. 

 

What is Nominal GDP Growth Rate?

What is Real GDP growth?

The US Dollar index and whether we are out of the zone of significance yet?

Inflation in services remains sticky

Why interest rates staying higher isn't necessarily a problem for the stock market

Quantifying sensitivity of the S&P 500 Index to small changes in the forward PE multiple

1994-95 vs 2024-25 update around treasury yields, S&P 500 returns

Alibaba and Arista earnings this week and their option implied moves 

How to calculate expected move around earnings based on implied volatility levels

 

 

Mentioned in this Episode

 

 

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

 

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com 

 

 

 


Derek Moore hosts Broken Pie Chart, a podcast that digs into the practical realities of managing money in a complex world. The name comes from the idea that traditional, rigid models for investing and planning often don't reflect real life. Each episode takes a specific concept-whether it's portfolio construction, market behavior, or preparing for retirement-and breaks it down into straightforward conversation. You'll hear clear explanations of economic trends and financial principles without the jargon, focusing on how these ideas actually impact personal and professional decisions. This isn't about hot stock tips; it's about building a durable understanding of how markets and the economy function. The goal is to provide listeners with a stronger foundation for their own financial choices, making seemingly opaque topics accessible and relevant. Tune in for a thoughtful, grounded perspective that challenges conventional wisdom and simplifies the complicated.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

Broken Pie Chart
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