Fastest Correction Ever? | VIX Index Collapse Post Spike| Will Fed Push Back on 50 bps Interest Rate Cut? | Latest CPI Inflation Analysis and Soft, Hard, or No Landing?

Fastest Correction Ever? | VIX Index Collapse Post Spike| Will Fed Push Back on 50 bps Interest Rate Cut? | Latest CPI Inflation Analysis and Soft, Hard, or No Landing?

Author: Derek Moore August 19, 2024 Duration: 49:52

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back to discuss the surge and record collapse back below 17.6 in the VIX Index. Plus, Reviewing the difference between the VIX Index (not tradable) and VIX Futures relative spike levels. Then, they go into the latest CPI numbers including CPI Supercore to see what is sticky and what is negative. Finally, they discuss whether Chairman Jerome Powel is going to disappoint markets with only a 25-bps cut when everyone seems to want more. All that and more including the yield curve inversion, mentions of job cuts vs AI on earnings calls in Q2, expectations for a soft, hard, or no landing and what the heck that even means.

 

VIX only takes 7 days to go back below 17.6 after spiking above 35

Comparing previous VIX Index surges and length to come back down

Difference between hard , soft, and no landings

Fed prepares for Jackson Hole meetings and sure to signal its interest rate intentions

Will Powell and the Fed disappoint markets?

Chance that Powel pushes back to not be bullied into rate cuts

Mentions of AI on corporate earnings calls vs mentions of job cuts and employment

Inverted yield curve and what the 2-year bond is predicting for rates in the future

Fed balance sheet below the radar

Will Fed stop letting treasury bonds and mortgage backed bonds run off the balance sheet?

Comparing current and past VIX spikes against the relative spike level of the VIX futures

 

 

Mentioned in this Episode

 

Panic Overdone? | VIX 3rd Highest Spike Ever | How the Strategies Held Up | Short Volatility Trades

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2mF1zkDaqWZLRhumfs0VJh?si=j5sn9DZpS3mmyM3Y5VM_1A

 

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

 

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

 


Derek Moore hosts Broken Pie Chart, a podcast that digs into the practical realities of managing money in a complex world. The name comes from the idea that traditional, rigid models for investing and planning often don't reflect real life. Each episode takes a specific concept-whether it's portfolio construction, market behavior, or preparing for retirement-and breaks it down into straightforward conversation. You'll hear clear explanations of economic trends and financial principles without the jargon, focusing on how these ideas actually impact personal and professional decisions. This isn't about hot stock tips; it's about building a durable understanding of how markets and the economy function. The goal is to provide listeners with a stronger foundation for their own financial choices, making seemingly opaque topics accessible and relevant. Tune in for a thoughtful, grounded perspective that challenges conventional wisdom and simplifies the complicated.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

Broken Pie Chart
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