Moodys Downgrades US Debt | Intra Year Drawdowns Are Common | S&P 500 Profit Margins Strong | Consumer Confidence Contrarian Indicator

Moodys Downgrades US Debt | Intra Year Drawdowns Are Common | S&P 500 Profit Margins Strong | Consumer Confidence Contrarian Indicator

Author: Derek Moore May 19, 2025 Duration: 40:43

Derek Moore reflects on market reaction to the 2011 US debt downgrade and explains what S&P, Fitch, and Moody's have for ratings. Plus, are markets poised for more positive returns based on several indicators? The bear case against the markets would be a reduction in profit margins. Later, Derek reviews some data of future 12-month returns when consumer confidence is low as a contrarian indicator. Finally, looking at several current indicators and random musing in markets for clues about the future. All that and more this week. 

 

S&P 500 Index net profit margins for Q1 2025

Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are low but is that a good thing?

Looking at how often intra year lows on average are -14% but often markets end higher

12-month inflation expectations are now 7.3% highest since 1981

Hard vs soft data

Velocity of M2 Money Stock 

What has been working asset class wise in 2025 YTD

15 biggest rallies since 1950 and subsequent forward total returns

Atlanta Fed GDP Now

Investment banks starting to reduce recession probabilities

Attribution of earnings EPS growth

DeGraaf and Zweig Breadth Thrusts occurring within 1 month of each other 

Explaining the difference between Moodys, Fitch, and S&P bond ratings

Moodys downgrades US Debt

 

 

Mentioned in this Episode

 

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

 

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com 

 

 

 

 

 


Derek Moore hosts Broken Pie Chart, a podcast that digs into the practical realities of managing money in a complex world. The name comes from the idea that traditional, rigid models for investing and planning often don't reflect real life. Each episode takes a specific concept-whether it's portfolio construction, market behavior, or preparing for retirement-and breaks it down into straightforward conversation. You'll hear clear explanations of economic trends and financial principles without the jargon, focusing on how these ideas actually impact personal and professional decisions. This isn't about hot stock tips; it's about building a durable understanding of how markets and the economy function. The goal is to provide listeners with a stronger foundation for their own financial choices, making seemingly opaque topics accessible and relevant. Tune in for a thoughtful, grounded perspective that challenges conventional wisdom and simplifies the complicated.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

Broken Pie Chart
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