Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli gather once again to discuss whether inflation is too high for the Fed to aggressively cut rates more. Then, they talk about the probability of the S&P 500 closing or getting to 7000 by year end 2025. Plus, is inflation still too high looking at Core CPI and CPI Supercore for the fed to cut rates as much as projected. Later, they go into some myths on the US debt and foreign ownership of treasuries, US Dollar Index against some resistance levels, what does paying your fair share in taxes mean, and more.
How probabilities are calculated based on option prices
Current probability of the S&P 500 Index hitting 7000 by year end 2025
Difference between probability of touching and probability of expiring in the money
Looking at the current forward PE ratio and multiple for the S&P
Calculating theoretical year end 2025 S&P price at different earnings and multiples
Is the PE multiple too high?
US Dollar moves higher but coming up against resistance?
Looking at who owns the $34 Trillion US Debt
Percentage of foreign countries who own treasuries
Many people think China owns more treasuries than it currently does
How much does the Fed own of outstanding US debt?
What does paying your fair share in taxes mean?
Income comparisons when including government transfer payments (benefits) and taxes
Data from New York City points to a small number of people paying most of the taxes
CPI Supercore
CPI Core and the Fed targets
Shelter inflation
How big of a company would SpaceX be if it went public?
Broadcom hits $1 Trillion in market cap today
Mentioned in this Episode
CBO report on Distribution of Household Income
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56575
NYC Department of Taxation https://www.tax.ny.gov/data/stats/taxfacts/personal-income-tax.htm
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
