Tariffs | Market Fragility | Mortgage Rate Spread to Treasuries | Analysts Estimates Are Pretty Accurate

Tariffs | Market Fragility | Mortgage Rate Spread to Treasuries | Analysts Estimates Are Pretty Accurate

Author: Derek Moore February 3, 2025 Duration: 42:59

Derek Moore previews Palantir, Amazon, and Google earnings implied volatility expectations based on the option market. Plus, how currency movements may or may not mute new tariffs. Later, Derek answers a listener question on why mortgage rates (and bonds) have a spread between their rate and the 10 Year Treasury yield. Plus, digging into new data that shows analysts producing earnings estimates on the S&P 500 Index are pretty accurate as it turns out. Finally, what is market fragility and are we in a fragility period right now?

 

What is market fragility?

Analyst estimates vs actuals show analysts might know what they are doing

30-year mortgage rates vs the 10-year treasury

Why is there a spread above treasuries

What is reinvestment risk on mortgage bonds?

Tariffs impact on markets

How currency moves on the Canadian Dollar, Mexican Peso, and Chinese Yuan may blunt tariffs

Will tariffs cause more onshoring and manufacturing in the US?

Sentiment was tariffs would be used as a threat, then they'll be short lived, so now what?

 

Mentioned in this Episode

 

Analysts are pretty good at predicting earnings from Sam Ro https://www.tker.co/p/analysts-earnings-estimates-accuracy

 

Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

 

Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com 

 

 

 


Derek Moore hosts Broken Pie Chart, a podcast that digs into the practical realities of managing money in a complex world. The name comes from the idea that traditional, rigid models for investing and planning often don't reflect real life. Each episode takes a specific concept-whether it's portfolio construction, market behavior, or preparing for retirement-and breaks it down into straightforward conversation. You'll hear clear explanations of economic trends and financial principles without the jargon, focusing on how these ideas actually impact personal and professional decisions. This isn't about hot stock tips; it's about building a durable understanding of how markets and the economy function. The goal is to provide listeners with a stronger foundation for their own financial choices, making seemingly opaque topics accessible and relevant. Tune in for a thoughtful, grounded perspective that challenges conventional wisdom and simplifies the complicated.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

Broken Pie Chart
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