The Man Who Bet His House on a Pop Song  - A Eurovision Tale

The Man Who Bet His House on a Pop Song - A Eurovision Tale

Author: Pushkin Industries May 12, 2023 Duration: 31:37

You can gamble on horses or on the turn of a card - but Daniel Gould made a living betting on the outcome of the annual Eurovision Song Contest. Daniel made a profit because he studied the voting history of the competition, as well as the cultural and geo-political factors that predict which songs will triumph and which will score "nil point".    

In 2018, Daniel was so sure of his system of reducing the risk that he took out a loan on his home and bet it on Israel's song to win...  only to see the entry from Cyprus suddenly rocketing up the leader board. Was Daniel about to lose everything?

For a full list of sources used in this episode visit Tim Harford.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.


There’s a reason we share scary stories-not just to entertain, but to learn. Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford applies that same instinct to the real world, digging into history’s most fascinating blunders and disasters to uncover what they can teach us today. Brought to you by Pushkin Industries, each episode feels like a masterfully told story, where Tim Harford-known for his work at the Financial Times, the BBC, and as author of “The Data Detective”-unpacks a single event. You’ll hear about catastrophic business decisions, scientific hubris, and public policy fiascos, all presented with a blend of narrative flair and sharp analysis. This isn’t just a history podcast; it’s a deep dive into human nature, decision-making, and the unexpected consequences that ripple from a single mistake. Listening feels like having a brilliantly insightful guide explain why things went so terribly, or hilariously, wrong. The stories are gripping on their own, but the real value lies in the lessons they make tangible for our own lives and choices. If you’ve ever wondered how a group of smart people could make a disastrous call, or how a seemingly small error snowballed into legend, this is the podcast for you. New episodes arrive every Friday, ready to transform a true tale of error into a lasting piece of wisdom.
Author: Language: en-us Episodes: 219

Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford
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