Recording date: 11th September 2026
Olive Resource Capital Inc. (TSXV:OC), represented on this Compass episode by Executive Chairman Derek Macpherson and President, CEO & CIO Samuel Pelaez, used the post-CPI window to lay out both its near-term macro read and its underlying investment process.
On the macro side, the September CPI print came in at 3.4%, above the Fed's target band but in line with consensus, prompting a muted market reaction. With the Federal Reserve's next meeting imminent and roughly 60% odds of a hike priced in, both executives argued that current inflation, driven substantially by diesel prices tied to disruption around the conflict in Iran, is largely a supply-side phenomenon the Fed has limited tools to address directly. They are watching the US Dollar Index closely, currently at a key support level, as their preferred read on where commodity prices head next: a breakdown lower would support the bullish commodities case, while a technical bounce, potentially reinforced by a rate hike, would be a near-term headwind.
The approaching US midterm elections add a second layer of expected volatility. Macpherson described a "midterm election vortex" of conflicting political headlines, citing a proposed household payment tied to Congressional control and a same-week reversal on copper tariff policy that briefly moved copper prices roughly 5%, as the kind of noise investors should expect through November without necessarily reflecting a change in underlying fundamentals.
Despite the noise, both executives stressed their long-term thesis is unchanged: persistent fiscal deficits are debasing fiat currency over time, a dynamic reinforced by comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, layered on top of two decades of underinvestment in resource discovery that has left supply structurally short of demand. They frame Olive's closed-end structure, free of redemption pressure, as a structural advantage that lets the firm buy into weakness rather than being forced to sell.
On process, Pelaez detailed the firm's portfolio construction discipline: every one to two months, the pair review every position in the portfolio, testing whether each investment thesis still holds and whether capital would be better deployed elsewhere. Position sizing scales with conviction and risk, from roughly 1-2% in binary, early-stage exploration bets up to 5-10% in high-conviction names, with the top ten holdings collectively targeted at more than half of total portfolio assets.
The clearest working example offered was CANEX Metals Inc. (TSXV:CANX), where Olive built its position from an initial 6-to-9-cent entry around the early-stage consolidation of the Gold Basin district into CANEX's Gold Range project, adding in the open market as the story progressed and continuing to participate in financings, most recently at 35 cents, even after a five- to six-times return on the original stake. Recent portfolio exits have freed capital that management is now redeploying into new positions.
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