Prediction markets want to be the news

Prediction markets want to be the news

Author: The Verge March 5, 2026 Duration: 45:24
Today let’s talk about prediction markets, which continue to insert themselves into the news cycle and the news in increasingly weird, unsettling, and potentially illegal ways.  My guest today is Liz Lopatto, a senior reporter at The Verge who owns what we cheerfully call the chaos beat. Liz has been writing a lot about prediction markets lately and especially why they all seem so intent on being perceived as sources of news — a position which directly incentivizes insider trading. That in turn creates a long list of very predictable problems. Read the full interview transcript on The Verge. Links: Prediction markets want to eat the news | The Verge How anonymous bettors cashed In on the Iran strike | NYT With Iran, Kalshi & Polymarket Bet on the Depravity Economy | 404 Media Polymarket pulls bet on nuclear detonation in 2026 | 404 Media Polymarket defends betting on war as ‘invaluable’ | The Verge Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture | The Verge Are prediction markets gambling? Robinhood CEO bets no | Decoder Prediction markets roll out war bets beyond Washington’s reach | Bloomberg Polymarket partners with Substack for some reason  | The Verge It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets | The Verge Subscribe to The Verge to access the ad-free version of Decoder! Credits: Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane.  The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

At the intersection of power, innovation, and consequence, you'll find Decoder with Nilay Patel. Hosted by The Verge's editor-in-chief, this isn't a typical business or technology podcast that simply recites the news. Instead, Nilay engages with founders, CEOs, legislators, and artists in substantive conversations that dissect the mechanics behind major decisions. The dialogue focuses on the real-world implications of big ideas, probing how today's choices in boardrooms and legislatures ripple out into society tomorrow. You'll hear guests articulate their toughest challenges, the trade-offs they've made, and the often-unseen forces shaping industries from social media and artificial intelligence to transportation and entertainment. Each episode is built on a foundation of genuine curiosity, aiming to unpack not just what is happening, but why it matters for the way we all live and work. Listening to this podcast feels like gaining access to a nuanced, behind-the-scenes briefing where strategy and philosophy collide. It's for anyone who suspects that the most important stories aren't the announcements themselves, but the human decisions, the unforeseen problems, and the ethical calculations that happen long before the headlines are written. Through these detailed conversations, Decoder provides a crucial lens on the architects of our modern world and the complex systems they are building, for better or worse.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

Decoder with Nilay Patel
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