Four: Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to solving difficult everyday questions

Four: Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to solving difficult everyday questions

Author: 80,000 Hours April 12, 2021 Duration: 2:17:12

Will SpaceX land people on Mars in the next decade? Will North Korea give up their nuclear weapons? Will your friend turn up to dinner?

Spencer Greenberg, founder of ClearerThinking.org has a process for working out such real life problems.

In this conversation from 2018, Spencer walks us through how to reason through difficult questions more accurately, and when we should expect to be overconfident or underconfident.
 

Full transcript, related links, and summary of this interview

This episode first broadcast on the regular 80,000 Hours Podcast feed on August 7, 2018. Some related episodes include:

• #7 – Julia Galef on making humanity more rational, what EA does wrong, and why Twitter isn’t all bad
• #11 – Dr Spencer Greenberg on speeding up social science 10-fold & why plenty of startups cause harm.
• #15 – Prof Tetlock on how chimps beat Berkeley undergrads and when it’s wise to defer to the wise
• #30 – Dr Eva Vivalt on how little social science findings generalize from one study to another
• #40 – Katja Grace on forecasting future technology & how much we should trust expert predictions.
• #48 – Brian Christian on better living through the wisdom of computer science
• #78 – Danny Hernandez on forecasting and measuring some of the most important drivers of AI progress


Series produced by Keiran Harris.


Curious about using evidence and reason to do good better? This curated collection from the Effective Altruism: An Introduction-80,000 Hours podcast offers a direct path into the core ideas of a growing global movement. Instead of a sprawling archive, you get ten essential conversations that cut straight to the heart of how we can use our resources-including our careers-to solve the world's most pressing problems. Each episode in this series is a standalone deep dive, yet together they build a coherent foundation. You'll hear from researchers and practitioners grappling with tough questions: How do we compare the impact of different charitable causes? What does it mean to think on a global scale, or even for future generations? The discussions move beyond theory, touching on practical paths in fields like global health, animal welfare, and safeguarding the long-term future. Compiled by 80,000 Hours, this podcast serves as both a primer and an invitation to deeper thinking. It’s designed for anyone who has wondered if their desire to help can be channeled more strategically, whether you're a student planning a career, a professional considering a pivot, or simply someone intrigued by the intersection of ethics and action. The conversations are rigorous but accessible, blending philosophy with real-world examples to explore what effective altruism actually looks like in practice.
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