Seven: Prof Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better

Seven: Prof Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better

Author: 80,000 Hours April 12, 2021 Duration: 2:17:25

Have you ever been infuriated by a doctor's unwillingness to give you an honest, probabilistic estimate about what to expect? Or a lawyer who won't tell you the chances you'll win your case?

Their behaviour is so frustrating because accurately predicting the future is central to every action we take. If we can't assess the likelihood of different outcomes we're in a complete bind, whether the decision concerns war and peace, work and study, or Black Mirror and RuPaul's Drag Race.

Which is why the research of Professor Philip Tetlock is relevant for all of us each and every day.

In this conversation from 2019, we discuss how his work can be applied to your personal life to answer high-stakes questions, like how likely you are to thrive in a given career path, or whether your business idea will be a billion-dollar unicorn — or fall apart catastrophically.
 

Full transcript, related links, and summary of this interview

This episode first broadcast on the regular 80,000 Hours Podcast feed on June 28, 2019. Some related episodes include:

• #7 – Julia Galef on making humanity more rational, what EA does wrong, and why Twitter isn’t all bad
• #11 – Dr Spencer Greenberg on speeding up social science 10-fold & why plenty of startups cause harm.
• #15 – Prof Tetlock on how chimps beat Berkeley undergrads and when it’s wise to defer to the wise
• #30 – Dr Eva Vivalt on how little social science findings generalize from one study to another
• #40 – Katja Grace on forecasting future technology & how much we should trust expert predictions.
• #48 – Brian Christian on better living through the wisdom of computer science
• #78 – Danny Hernandez on forecasting and measuring some of the most important drivers of AI progress


Series produced by Keiran Harris.


Curious about using evidence and reason to do good better? This curated collection from the Effective Altruism: An Introduction-80,000 Hours podcast offers a direct path into the core ideas of a growing global movement. Instead of a sprawling archive, you get ten essential conversations that cut straight to the heart of how we can use our resources-including our careers-to solve the world's most pressing problems. Each episode in this series is a standalone deep dive, yet together they build a coherent foundation. You'll hear from researchers and practitioners grappling with tough questions: How do we compare the impact of different charitable causes? What does it mean to think on a global scale, or even for future generations? The discussions move beyond theory, touching on practical paths in fields like global health, animal welfare, and safeguarding the long-term future. Compiled by 80,000 Hours, this podcast serves as both a primer and an invitation to deeper thinking. It’s designed for anyone who has wondered if their desire to help can be channeled more strategically, whether you're a student planning a career, a professional considering a pivot, or simply someone intrigued by the intersection of ethics and action. The conversations are rigorous but accessible, blending philosophy with real-world examples to explore what effective altruism actually looks like in practice.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 12

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