China Energy Transformation Outlook - Kaare Sandholt

China Energy Transformation Outlook - Kaare Sandholt

Author: Beijing Energy Network March 23, 2025 Duration: 34:26

In this episode of Environment China, we are talking about China's long-term pathway to carbon neutrality and, in particular, about the recent publication of the China Energy Transformation Outlook, or CETO, which provides two scenarios of China's clean energy transition. We talk to Kaare Sandholt, International Chief Expert for the China Energy Transformation Programme. The programme is run by the Energy Research Institute  of the NDRC.

Topics we address include:

  • The importance of long-term modeling, and its contribution compared to five-year plans or other policy planning
  • How CETO's two main scenarios compare: both assume carbon neutrality by 2060 and similar GDP growth, but differ in terms of energy mix and technology progress
  • The role of electrification and energy efficiency: starting with transport, but also in industry, which requires both a cleaner grid and lower direct combustion of fossil fuels, which wastes huge amounts of energy through waste heat
  • The importance of structural economic transformation: CETO assumes China makes substantial progress transitioning away from heavy manufacturing
  • The reforms that CETO anticipates, including especially in power markets (merit-order dispatch, cross-regional electricity trading, and price signals), but also in carbon markets and industry standards
  • The role of gas: gas will rise rapidly in relative terms, with 50-50 growth between power sector and industry; in coastal provinces gas is for flexibility in the power sector, and inland provinces gas is for industry; but it will not become a major transition fuel that takes the place of coal
  • The amount of wind and solar capacity that will be needed: while the RE capacity requirement has risen due to faster electricity demand growth, the annual additions needed are roughly in line with present wind and solar additions

The report is available in English here:

https://www.cet.energy/

And Kaare Sandholt has an excellent article in a recent issue of Carbon Brief, published together with Wang Zhongying:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-china-will-need-10000gw-of-wind-and-solar-by-2060/ 

 

Executive Producer of this episode: Anders Hove

 


Produced by the Beijing Energy Network, Environment China is a bilingual podcast that delves into the complex and vital stories shaping China's ecological landscape. Rather than offering broad pronouncements, it focuses on grounded conversations with the people on the front lines: the advocates campaigning for change, the entrepreneurs building sustainable solutions, and the researchers providing crucial data. Each episode explores the intersection of society, culture, and science, revealing how environmental policy and daily life are intertwined. You'll hear specific discussions about conservation efforts, green technology, urban design, and community initiatives, all framed within the unique context of modern China. This podcast provides a necessary platform for these nuanced voices, translating complex issues into accessible dialogue. It’s an essential listen for anyone seeking to move beyond headlines and understand the real-world work being done to address environmental challenges. By listening to Environment China, you gain insight into the multifaceted movement towards sustainability, one conversation at a time.
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