Bombs won't break Iran's regime, but money might | Eye for Iran | EP 115 |

Can financial pressure succeed where military strikes cannot?

For months, the debate over Iran has focused on bombs, missiles and airstrikes. But what if the Islamic Republic's greatest vulnerability isn't military at all?

In this episode of Eye for Iran, I sit down with Roger Macmillan, Counterterrorism and Security Specialist, and Miad Maleki, Senior US Sanctions Strategist, FDD Fellow and former US Treasury official, to explore why Iran's economy—and more specifically the regime's ability to pay the IRGC, Basij and its security apparatus—may be its greatest vulnerability. While the Islamic Republic has shown it can absorb military strikes, can it survive sustained financial pressure?

Segment 2: Inside Iran’s sanctions-busting military supply networks

Kerri Bittsoff, former senior official at the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), spent years targeting the financial and procurement pipelines behind Iran's drones, missiles and nuclear program, disrupting the regime's ability to develop, indigenize and source critical components. Most recently, she led efforts to expose and disrupt Tehran's military supply chain to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine. She explains how China and Russia have become critical lifelines for Tehran, helping the regime procure advanced weapons, finance its activities and evade sanctions.

Segment 3: Is the IRGC becoming the state?

Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), and historian Shahram Kholdi examine how power inside Iran is shifting after the war. Has the IRGC eclipsed the country's civilian institutions? Is parliament becoming irrelevant? And what could the post-war power struggle mean for Iran's political future?

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Chapters:

00:00 Coming Up

01:23 Roger Macmillan & Miad Maleki | Can Financial Pressure Break Iran?

13:44 Iran's Achilles' Heel

25:03 Kerri Bitsoff | Can the US Cut Off Iran's Lifelines?

26:43 China's Weapons Pipeline to Iran

30:03 How Iran Evades Sanctions

37:51 Russia's Role in Arming Iran

44:38 Are China and Russia Keeping Iran Alive?

45:19 Alex Vatanka, Behnam Ben Taleblu & Shahram Kholdi | Is the IRGC Taking Over Iran?

46:11 Has the IRGC Taken Over Iran?

53:28 Is the IRGC United?

1:00:57 Who Really Holds Power in Tehran?

1:07:20 Who Speaks for Mojtaba Khamenei?

1:13:22 Thanks for Watching

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