Are We Smarter Than The Betting Markets?

Are We Smarter Than The Betting Markets?

Author: ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen Druke May 9, 2024 Duration: 29:05
Six months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of emotion and narratives? Unfortunately we don’t have a conventional wisdom thermometer in the office, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast we put that wisdom to the test with a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold.” We look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of everything from former President Donald Trump picking South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as his running mate to Democrats winning a Senate race in Ohio, and decide whether the odds are appropriately priced. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tune in to FiveThirtyEight Politics for a conversation that goes beyond the headlines and into the numbers that shape them. Hosted by Galen Druke and the team of analysts and journalists from FiveThirtyEight and ABC News, this podcast digs into the data behind elections, policy debates, and the shifting currents of public opinion. Each episode feels like sitting in on a smart, sometimes contentious, but always evidence-based discussion among people who are deeply curious about how power and persuasion actually work. You’ll hear them parse new polls, dissect electoral strategies, and question what truly constitutes a political "game-changer," all with a focus on the historical trends and statistical context that others often miss. It’s a necessary listen for anyone who wants to understand not just what’s happening in American politics, but the measurable forces that explain why. This isn’t about partisan punditry; it’s a clear-eyed, data-driven exploration of the modern political landscape, making it one of the most distinctive voices in the news and politics podcast space.
Author: Language: en-us Episodes: 100

FiveThirtyEight Politics
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