Are We Smarter Than The Betting Markets?

Are We Smarter Than The Betting Markets?

Author: ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen Druke May 9, 2024 Duration: 29:05
Six months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of emotion and narratives? Unfortunately we don’t have a conventional wisdom thermometer in the office, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast we put that wisdom to the test with a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold.” We look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of everything from former President Donald Trump picking South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as his running mate to Democrats winning a Senate race in Ohio, and decide whether the odds are appropriately priced. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tune in to FiveThirtyEight Politics for a conversation that goes beyond the headlines and into the numbers that shape them. Hosted by Galen Druke and the team of analysts and journalists from FiveThirtyEight and ABC News, this podcast digs into the data behind elections, policy debates, and the shifting currents of public opinion. Each episode feels like sitting in on a smart, sometimes contentious, but always evidence-based discussion among people who are deeply curious about how power and persuasion actually work. You’ll hear them parse new polls, dissect electoral strategies, and question what truly constitutes a political "game-changer," all with a focus on the historical trends and statistical context that others often miss. It’s a necessary listen for anyone who wants to understand not just what’s happening in American politics, but the measurable forces that explain why. This isn’t about partisan punditry; it’s a clear-eyed, data-driven exploration of the modern political landscape, making it one of the most distinctive voices in the news and politics podcast space.
Author: Language: en-us Episodes: 100

FiveThirtyEight Politics
Podcast Episodes
Voters Around The World Are Mad As Hell [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 38:57
There are more people voting in 2024 than ever before. This year, elections are taking place in at least 64 countries, as well as the European Union, totaling almost half of the world’s population. In this installment of…
2024 Is Going To Be A Vibes Election [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:38
Last week we got significant news in two key issue areas that might shape how voters are thinking this fall: the economy and abortion legality. First, on Wednesday, the latest consumer price index data showed inflation c…
How Much AI Regulation Is The Right Amount? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 42:01
Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research. The plan has raised numerous questions about whether and how the…
538’s New Forecast Says The Election Is A Toss-Up [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 38:05
The 2024 presidential election forecast is live. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sits down with director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris to talk about the even odds between President Joe Biden…
Mr. Druke Goes to Washington [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 43:31
This installment of the 538 Politics podcast comes to you from the nation's capital, where Galen is joined in-studio by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and friend of the podcast, New York Times polling editor R…
The First Polls Since Trump’s Guilty Verdict Are In [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 44:13
It's been four days since former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in the Manhattan criminal case, and the early indication from the polls is that there has been a small shift away from Trump in head-to-head pollin…
Reaction Podcast: Trump Found Guilty [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 32:21
On Thursday, a Manhattan jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. In this 538 Politics reaction podc…
The 3 Questions That Will Decide Trump's First Trial [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 35:10
Closing arguments have wrapped up in former President Donald Trump’s first criminal trial, where he is being accused of falsifying business records in connection to a hush money payment made to adult film actor Stormy Da…
Elections Everywhere All At Once [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 35:38
It’s been a newsy week for elections here at home and across the pond. On Wednesday, in her first public appearance since dropping out of the Republican primary, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said that she is going…
Campaign Throwback: 'The Beer Question' [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 23:47
This is the third installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or…