A Soybean faux-détente

A Soybean faux-détente

Author: Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic May 15, 2026 Duration: 1:28:44

Trump and Xi shook hands in Beijing, and yes, the soccer mom in all of us should appreciate that two nuclear superpowers are behaving like adults. But let's not kid ourselves :) soybeans and Boeing orders don't a détente make. JShap thinks Trump can't carry the baton; Marko says he's the only one who can land the plane he launched. Meanwhile, the CIA's running around Mexico, Cuba's running out of diesel, and AOC is sharpening her ideological fangs.

After Dark, as advertised.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show rundown and updates

(00:45) - After Dark banter

(01:47) - Trump meets Xi

(02:47) - Why the summit matters

(05:42) - Messaging and skepticism

(08:04) - Military intelligence complex

(09:46) - Tech split and hardware lobby

(14:05) - Globalization lessons and leverage

(20:29) - COVID and Nixon to China

(25:00) - Who carries the baton

(34:46) - China economics and engineering state

(37:54) - Consumers inflation and pain tolerance

(46:12) - Pentagon report dime framework

(46:57) - DIME Framework Roast

(47:53) - China and Hormuz Deal

(52:11) - Chinese Shipping Boom

(53:02) - Gulf Commodities Pivot

(55:11) - US China Mixed Signals

(59:12) - Mexico Relationship Flashpoints

(01:01:23) - Cuba Protests and Indictments

(01:03:27) - Do Mexicans Want Help

(01:06:02) - CIA vs Delta Force Debate

(01:12:47) - AOC Billionaire Clip

(01:19:21) - Populism and Corruption

(01:26:56) - California Race Wrap Up

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro


There’s a certain kind of conversation that happens when two deeply knowledgeable friends, who also happen to be professional geopolitical analysts, get together without a script. That’s the space Geopolitical Cousins occupies. Hosts Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic bring their distinct perspectives-often aligned, sometimes clashing-to dissect the forces shaping our world, from market-moving policies to underlying cultural shifts. You won’t find dry, academic lectures here. Instead, each episode feels like you’re overhearing a lively, sometimes comedic debate between two cousins at a family gathering, if that family was obsessed with the intersection of power, philosophy, and investment. The analysis is rigorous and in-depth, yet delivered with a relatable ease that can pivot from a serious interview with an expert to an off-the-wall observation about societal quirks. This podcast digs into the "why" behind the headlines, exploring how business, culture, and human nature collide on the global stage. By weaving together categories that are often kept separate-society, investing, comedy, philosophy-Shapiro and Papic create a uniquely holistic listen. Tune in for a perspective that is as intellectually substantial as it is unpredictably engaging.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 60

Geopolitical Cousins
Podcast Episodes
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Duration: 1:26:54
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Duration: 1:15:50
Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage.…
The Spice Must Flow! [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:18:06
We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to…
Mad Max: Hormuz Warrior [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:45:32
The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is we…
Marko's Pain-Based Punitive Airpower Global Response Equation [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:21:51
Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts: (Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????They dudes argue about…
They Don't Want the Smoke [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:12:16
Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleab…