Our 2025 Geopolitical Power Draft

Our 2025 Geopolitical Power Draft

Author: Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic May 15, 2025 Duration: 1:26:47

The cousins return with chaos, caffeine, and an inaugural Geopolitical Power Draft - but not before Marko rants about Gulf monarchies, Trump’s diplomatic plane deals, and why Saudi Arabia might out-liberal Israel by 2050. He skewers Western pearl-clutching, explains why Qatar owes him a jet, and declares multipolarity the new default. Along the way: why Zelensky outmaneuvered Putin, how Xi is courting Latin America, and why the UAE is quietly winning the AI arms race. Then it’s time to pick global power players for the next 30 years. Marko’s playing 5D chess with industrial policy.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview

(01:00) - Geopolitical Analysts and Air Travel

(02:45) - US Foreign Policy and Gifts

(07:43) - Middle East Developments

(23:13) - Saudi Arabia's Transformation

(41:44) - Geopolitical Draft Introduction

(45:51) - Geopolitical Power Index and Geopolitics as an Art

(47:00) - Quantitative vs Qualitative Analysis in Geopolitics

(47:20) - Defining Power and Influence

(48:37) - Non-Linearity and Future Predictions

(48:53) - Nuclear Power and Population Debates

(49:07) - Critique of Demographic Obsession

(51:09) - American Power and Multipolarity

(54:01) - China's Position and Challenges

(59:09) -European Union and Western Europe

(01:04:05) - Turkey's Strategic Importance

(01:08:16) - India's Potential and Challenges

(01:11:56) - Russia's Geopolitical Influence

(01:13:45) - South Korea's Technological Edge

(01:16:31) - Brazil's Agricultural and Manufacturing Future

(01:17:03) - Canada's Strategic Advantages

(01:18:47) -Iran's Potential Resurgence

(01:19:56) - Argentina's Reform and Innovation

(01:20:48) - Singapore's Strategic Position

(01:21:30) - Saudi Arabia's Regional Influence

(01:22:11) - Japan's Resilience

(01:22:32) - Ukraine's Future as a Garrison State

(01:24:21) - Conclusion and NBA Thoughts


There’s a certain kind of conversation that happens when two deeply knowledgeable friends, who also happen to be professional geopolitical analysts, get together without a script. That’s the space Geopolitical Cousins occupies. Hosts Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic bring their distinct perspectives-often aligned, sometimes clashing-to dissect the forces shaping our world, from market-moving policies to underlying cultural shifts. You won’t find dry, academic lectures here. Instead, each episode feels like you’re overhearing a lively, sometimes comedic debate between two cousins at a family gathering, if that family was obsessed with the intersection of power, philosophy, and investment. The analysis is rigorous and in-depth, yet delivered with a relatable ease that can pivot from a serious interview with an expert to an off-the-wall observation about societal quirks. This podcast digs into the "why" behind the headlines, exploring how business, culture, and human nature collide on the global stage. By weaving together categories that are often kept separate-society, investing, comedy, philosophy-Shapiro and Papic create a uniquely holistic listen. Tune in for a perspective that is as intellectually substantial as it is unpredictably engaging.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 65

Geopolitical Cousins
Podcast Episodes
The Second Derivative [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:33:29
The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-t…
Forty Meters Under Fordow [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:32:28
Jacob and Marko dive straight into the Iran-US ceasefire negotiations (airstrikes are hitting Iranian ships and missile sites as I type) - dissecting domestic political constraints on both sides, the Strait of Hormuz's d…
TVI26: C***** Goes #1 [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:16:46
Trade Value Index 2026 Part 3!Okay, okay... Here's the FULL list -> https://tinyurl.com/gctvi26 --Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome Back and Housekeeping(01:37) - Netanyahu Reconsidered(03:07) - Trump Iran War and Tariffs(05:…
TVI26: Jinping Rising [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 48:12
2026 Trade Values P2 :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(00:42) - Part Two Setup(02:31) - Lula at Fifteen(05:17) - Macron Debate(09:57) - Noboa and Ecuador Crime(11:47) - Uzbekistan Rising(13:28) - Uzbek Reforms Deep Dive(1…
TVI26: Benchwarmers [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:42:04
The Trade Value Index is back!!!!!!! Part 1.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Housekeeping(00:47) - Why We Love Rankings(02:15) - Trade Value Rules Explained(06:59) - How We Score Leaders(08:29) - What Trade Value Means(11:03) - La…
A Soybean faux-détente [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:28:44
Trump and Xi shook hands in Beijing, and yes, the soccer mom in all of us should appreciate that two nuclear superpowers are behaving like adults. But let's not kid ourselves :) soybeans and Boeing orders don't a détente…
China Just Doesn't Care [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:17:06
The lads turn an unscripted session into a sharp diagnosis of the US-China relationship amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They debate whether China is strategically patient or simply indifferent - and what its silence me…
Cousins After Dark [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:17:24
Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether China's patience ha…
The Supply Hole [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:30:05
Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day…
Strategic Vibe Reserves [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:21:52
China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap…