Scotty Doesn't Know

Scotty Doesn't Know

Author: Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic August 22, 2026 Duration: 1:26:25

Scott Bessent says he doesn't understand why oil prices are spiking. The guy standing between America and the River Styx is confused :) The cousins crack open a few cold ones this week and break down why the 30-year just hit a 20-year high - not debt, not deficits, just vibes. Atrocious ones. The lads cover the war in Iran, tweets about North Korea, and a bond market that's done playing along. Plus... are hyperscalers minting money or building the next great overbuild? And what does the Lakers sale have to do with any of this? Everything, obviously.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Beer And Banter

(01:02) - Treasury Buyback Shock

(04:15) - Why Yields Matter

(05:44) - Growth And Data Center Debt

(09:34) - War In Iran And Bad Vibes

(10:27) - Three Bond Selloffs Explained

(18:16) - Debt Deficits And AI Debate

(26:23) - China Models And AI Capex

(43:06) - Dollar Multipolarity Risks

(46:03) - Reserve Currency Reliability

(47:40) - South Korea Tweet Fallout

(48:48) - Pound vs Dollar Inertia

(51:57) - Trump 1 vs Trump 2

(54:04) - Iran War Limits Debate

(59:14) - Multipolar Reality Sets In

(01:01:56) - Backlash Against Data Centers

(01:05:10) - Why AI Fear Spreads

(01:11:26) - Populism and Tax Future

(01:19:39) - Lakers Sale Conspiracies

(01:22:34) - Private Equity in Sports

(01:25:52) - Closing Banter and Wrap

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro


There’s a certain kind of conversation that happens when two deeply knowledgeable friends, who also happen to be professional geopolitical analysts, get together without a script. That’s the space Geopolitical Cousins occupies. Hosts Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic bring their distinct perspectives-often aligned, sometimes clashing-to dissect the forces shaping our world, from market-moving policies to underlying cultural shifts. You won’t find dry, academic lectures here. Instead, each episode feels like you’re overhearing a lively, sometimes comedic debate between two cousins at a family gathering, if that family was obsessed with the intersection of power, philosophy, and investment. The analysis is rigorous and in-depth, yet delivered with a relatable ease that can pivot from a serious interview with an expert to an off-the-wall observation about societal quirks. This podcast digs into the "why" behind the headlines, exploring how business, culture, and human nature collide on the global stage. By weaving together categories that are often kept separate-society, investing, comedy, philosophy-Shapiro and Papic create a uniquely holistic listen. Tune in for a perspective that is as intellectually substantial as it is unpredictably engaging.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 50

Geopolitical Cousins
Podcast Episodes
Cousins After Dark [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:17:24
Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether China's patience ha…
The Supply Hole [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:30:05
Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day…
Strategic Vibe Reserves [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:21:52
China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap…
Bombing for Peace [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:26:54
Marko and Jacob dig into the Iran ceasefire - is it real, or theater? Marko argues Trump's bombing campaign materially set back Iran's nuclear program, making even a JCPOA-style deal a net win. They also cover the erosio…
Taco Tuesday [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:15:50
Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage.…
The Spice Must Flow! [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:18:06
We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to…
Mad Max: Hormuz Warrior [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:45:32
The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is we…
Marko's Pain-Based Punitive Airpower Global Response Equation [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:21:51
Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts: (Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????They dudes argue about…
They Don't Want the Smoke [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:12:16
Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleab…
Epic Heat Check [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:12:40
Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singul…