How Ukraine Can Survive the Exhaustion of Its Air Defense Stocks

How Ukraine Can Survive the Exhaustion of Its Air Defense Stocks

Author: Silverado Policy Accelerator April 17, 2023 Duration: 1:06:07
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Justin Bronk (Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at  RUSI and Professor at Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy) and Dara Massicot (Russian military analyst at RAND) about the dire implications of the dwindling stocks of Ukrainian air defense interceptors and what can be done to solve that problem. Justin makes a strong case for how only a dozen or so Swedish Saab Gripen jets could make a huge difference for Ukrainian objective to make Russian air power irrelevant in this war and Dara proposes an asymmetric response to deny Russian military launch platforms from which they could strike Ukraine. Also, in the podcast:- Why F-16s are a terrible fit for Ukrainian airfields and the dilemma the US would face in providing the newest AMRAAM missiles for them (that Ukraine would need) without jeopardizing US air superiority in the potential conflict with China- How the Russian Air Force is likely to carpet-bomb Ukrainian cities, provide increased close air support to its ground forces and target Ukrainian logistics/ammo depots/force concentrations and HIMARS launchers if they achieve air superiority over the skies in Ukraine- The challenges with producing Soviet air defense interceptor missiles outside of Russia- Why Western air defense systems (Patriots, NASAMS, IRIS-T, etc) are not a replacement for the large quantities of Ukrainian S-300s and Buks- How countermeasures on Russian fighter jets have actually been effective in limiting their combat losses against MANPADS like Stingers- Why Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) are considered the most professional and most responsive to learning units in the Russian military- The success of Ukrainian counter-UAV battle against Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones and how a phone app is making a key difference for Ukraine in that fight Music: "Flygkadetten Marsch"  (The Aviation Cadet March) of the Swedish Air Force

Hosted by Dmitri Alperovitch and presented by the Silverado Policy Accelerator, Geopolitics Decanted offers a deep and nuanced examination of the forces shaping our world. This isn't about quick headlines; it's a podcast dedicated to patient, detailed analysis and substantive conversations with leading experts. Each episode distills complex international issues, moving beyond superficial narratives to explore the underlying strategies, technologies, and economic instruments at play. You'll hear focused discussions on ongoing conflicts like the war in Ukraine, the multifaceted competition between major powers, and the evolving tools of statecraft, from economic sanctions and export controls to cybersecurity threats and the global race for semiconductor supremacy. Geopolitics Decanted is for those who feel that understanding global affairs requires more than sound bites-it demands context, historical perspective, and a willingness to engage with the granular details that truly define geopolitical shifts. Through these in-depth interviews and Alperovitch's own commentary, the podcast provides listeners with a clearer, more comprehensive framework for making sense of an increasingly interconnected and contested global landscape.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 79

Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch
Podcast Episodes
How Russia’s Winter Offensive Could Backfire [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 48:54
Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Michael Kofman to discuss the strategic mistakes of Russia's current offensive in the Donbas and the prospects of an upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive. We also dive into the implicatio…
Interview: This American Spent 10 Months Fighting in Ukraine [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:04:47
Dmitri Alperovitch talks to David Bramlette, a former U.S. Ranger and Green Beret combat veteran, who has recently returned from fighting with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Dav…
How Russia is Working Around Western Sanctions and Export Controls [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 24:54
Dmitri Alperovitch talks to Silverado's own experts - Sarah Stewart (CEO) and Andy David (Senior Director of Research and Analysis) about Silverado's new just published research report that dives deep into the analysis o…
Why Ukraine May Try to Retake Crimea Next [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:01:58
Since the start of the Russian invasion last February, it has been a commonly accepted wisdom that Ukraine will not try to retake Crimea - an action that many in the West worry will trigger an escalation - until it has t…
How Dwindling Ammunition Stocks Could Decide the Outcome of the War [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 46:53
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Russian military expert Michael Kofman about: - Why this war may be decided by which side can stretch their ammunition supplies the longest - Putin’s visit to Belarus and whether a new Russi…
New Phase of the War: Ukraine Faces Tough Decisions [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 47:47
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman - The strategic impact of Russian terror strike campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure - Likelihood of a near-term Ukrainian offensive to retake the South - Is Ukr…
No Way Out: Why Negotiations Won’t End the War Soon [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:05:09
In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with historian and Russia expert Mark Galeotti about: - Whether Putin is capable of compromising his war aims in any potential future negotiations with Ukraine - Th real reason f…
Russia’s Cyber Game: What Worked and What Didn’t [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 45:45
In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Danny Moore, a scholar of offensive cyber operations and a former cyber operator in the Israeli Defense Forces, about the successes and failures of Russian cyber attacks…
How the Russian Air Force Failed in Ukraine [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:09:28
Why has Russia been unable to suppress Ukrainian air defenses? What is the true state of its missile stockpiles and production rates? Is the F-16 the best aircraft to provide to Ukraine to replace its old Soviet fighter…