Frank's 2024 Geopolitical Predictions

Frank's 2024 Geopolitical Predictions

Author: TD Securities January 31, 2024 Duration: 47:21
Back by popular demand, in Episode 48 Frank returns to the predictions game on 10 geopolitical topics important in Canada, the US and around the world in 2024. Topics covered in this predictions episode cover a wide ranging set of issues including: the likelihood that Prime Minister Trudeau continues to lead the Liberal Party, immigration issues in Canada and at the southern border the United States, the next phase of the Canada-India diplomatic row, as well as a complete analysis of the US election and former President Donald Trump's legal woes that will likely play a part in the election result on November 5th. We finish covering three global hot spots, the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas dispute, and the likelihood North Korea moves from rhetoric to action in its tough talk with its neighbor in South Korea. Chapter Headings 1:02 – 1. Will Liberal Leaders Tell Prime Minister Trudeau it is time to retire? 4:50 – 2. What happens to Canada-India Relations if and when Assassination Evidence is Made Public? 8:16 – 3. Immigration Problems for Canada and at the Southern Border of the US 19:16 - 4. Predicting the Outcome of Former President Trump's Legal Woes 25:06 - 5. Name the Democratic and Republican Leaders that Face off on September 16th at the First Presidential Debate? 25:29 – 6. Who Wins the US Election? 29:17 – 7. Who Controls the House and Senate after November 5th? 30:54 - 8. Is there an Off Ramp in 2024 to end the Russia-Ukraine Conflict? 33:32 - 9. Does the Israel-Hamas Conflict End this year and, if yes, then what is the catalyst? 36:50 - 10. Will North Korea Flex its Muscles on South Korea? 40:36 - Quick Hitters – Frank's Take on CPI, WTI, the S&P 500 and the Stanley Cup and World Series Champions 41:47 - A Review of 2023 – Frank's Winners and Losers This podcast was recorded on January 29, 2024. Disclaimer This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

Each month, Peter Haynes sits down with Frank McKenna for a conversation that cuts through the noise of global headlines. The Geopolitics with Frank McKenna podcast provides a rare perspective, shaped by McKenna’s unique blend of experience as a former Canadian Premier and Ambassador to the U.S., now serving as Deputy Chair at TD Securities. This isn't a theoretical discussion; it's a practical analysis of how international tensions, trade disputes, and shifting alliances directly impact markets and business strategies. You’ll hear nuanced takes on the stories dominating the news, grounded in a deep understanding of both political corridors and boardrooms. Haynes guides these monthly dialogues to unpack complex issues with clarity, making the forces shaping our world accessible and relevant. For anyone looking to comprehend the real-world implications of global power dynamics, this series offers essential listening. The insights throughout this podcast come from a place of firsthand experience, offering listeners a valuable lens on the interconnected nature of policy and finance. Tune in for thoughtful, forward-looking conversations that go beyond the soundbite.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 53

Geopolitics with Frank McKenna
Podcast Episodes
Iran Takes Center of World Geopolitical Stage [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 44:52
Frank's focus during the June episode of Geopolitics was on analyzing the fluid situation in the Middle East following Israel's 12-day war with Iran and the US's decision to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. Stepping back…
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For the first time in four months of our podcast series, the focus of Frank's attention is not centered around tariffs. This month Frank starts with a detailed analysis of Prime Minister Carney's cabinet, a carefully con…
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Duration: 52:46
In Episode 64, Frank covers the Canadian election from top to bottom, including addressing unflattering comments about Canada as a country from the leader of the Bloc Quebecois and the Premier of Alberta. Frank addresses…
Canada's New Prime Minister Joins Tariff/Sovereignty Debate [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 53:17
In Episode 63, the focus of discussions in on two main topics: new Prime Minister Mark Carney's early days at the helm of Canada, and tariffs. Frank discusses Carney's decision to travel to Europe before the US, a move t…
The Future of Canada-US Relations [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:03:30
In Episode 62, Frank is joined by Chris Krueger of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group to discuss the first 30 days of the Trump Administration, and the on-going trade war with Canada. Chris outlines his biggest surpris…
Canada's Acute Case of Tariffitis [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:30
Episode 60 is dominated by recent events in Ottawa, a period Frank describes as the most chaotic in his lifetime. Frank first dissects the decision by Chrystia Freeland to resign from her post as Minister of Finance prio…
Post Election Hangover – Now What? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 41:22
Frank is back from a vacation in the Far East, and he is fired up to talk about the US Election and its implications for global geopolitics. We cover Trump's controversial cabinet picks. Frank is supportive of Marco Rubi…
The US Election – Post Mortem with Chris Krueger and Rona Ambrose [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 42:29
In this special edition of Geopolitics, we check in on a post-election panel discussion at the 25th Annual TD Securities Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference. With Frank Mckenna out of the country, Geopol…
The Long Road to the US Election Nears an End – or does it? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 45:37
In Episode 57, Frank invites Chris Krueger, TD Cowen's Washington politics expert, to the podcast to discuss the upcoming November 5th US Election and key factors that will determine who wins the Presidential race. Frank…