The Long Road to the US Election Nears an End – or does it?

In Episode 57, Frank invites Chris Krueger, TD Cowen's Washington politics expert, to the podcast to discuss the upcoming November 5th US Election and key factors that will determine who wins the Presidential race. Frank explains the importance of the election outcome to Canada, noting that if Trump is true to his word (and there is no reason to doubt him), then a Republican victory would lead to a weakening (if not outright end) of multilateralism globally. While the USMCA might survive, the threat of unilateral tariffs will overhang Canada-US relations for the duration of the next Administration. We discuss down ballet Congressional votes, which according to both Frank and Chris are likely to lead to a split Congress. Chris also weighs in on the risk of outlier events disrupting the peaceful transition of power. We wrap up with Frank's take on the Federal Liberal Caucus revolt, and the likelihood that Prime Minister Trudeau stays on through the next election in Canada, especially considering incumbent defeats in provincial elections from coast to coast. Chapter Headings: 0:55 - Is the US Election the Most Consequential in History? 2:11 - Key Variables that Will Decide the Outcome 8:58 - USMCA – Threat of Unilateral Sanctions from a Trump Administration 14:07 - Will the Prime Minister Push Biden to Resolve Softwood Lumber Dispute? 16:50 - Risk of Outlier Events Disrupting Peaceful Transition of Power 27:02 - Trump Tax Breaks and Debt Ceiling 33:19 - Placing Bets on the Winner 36:28 - Liberal Caucus Revolt and Likelihood Trudeau Stays on Through Next Election