I had the great pleasure to discuss the efforts by the Europeans and Zelensky to obtain security guarantees from the US. The Ukrainian army is collapsing, and Zelensky needs to get the US pulled into the war with security guarantees. Peace agreements must remove the incentives for restarting the fighting. While security guarantees could deter Russia, it would create an incentive for Ukraine to restart the fighting to get US assistance with reconquering territories. Zelensky has previously lied about a Russian missile attack on Poland to pull NATO into the war, and security guarantees could leave the US in a dilemma between having its deterrent discredited or going to war against the world’s largest nuclear power. Offering Ukraine’s natural resources to the US is an attempt by Zelensky to buy security guarantees and Washington’s recognition that he is the legitimate leader of Ukraine. While Trump will allow Zelensky to buy legitimacy, he is unlikely to provide security guarantees as the US already holds all the cards and has immense leverage over Ukraine.
