I had the great pleasure of speaking with Professor John J. Mearsheimer and Alexander Mercouris about the stalling of peace negotiations as the US faces resistance from the Europeans and Zelensky. The US will likely increase pressure on Zelensky, and the Europeans can be divided and played against each other. However, the subsequent uncertainty signals to the Russians that any future deal could fall apart quickly. Therefore, Russia have great incentives to seize more territory to ensure Eastern Ukraine cannot be used as a frontline against Russia in the future. The peace talks will likely slow down over the next few weeks, and a massive Russian offensive can be expected. The alternative to a peace agreement will likely be the collapse of the Ukrainian army and the dramatic increase in casualties, which is common at the final stages of a losing war. This will result in a humanitarian disaster and a severely weakened Ukraine that will fuel instability for decades to come.
