Putin's next move: A risky mobilization or a ceasefire?

Vladimir Putin is likely approaching one of the most consequential decisions of the war and in fact of his entire reign: escalate further through another major mobilization, or accept some form of ceasefire. Or can he continue delaying that choice? In this episode, I spoke with Russian foreign policy expert Dr. Olena Snigyr about what Putin is likely to do in the coming months and what could actually force him to change course. They discuss why Putin has maintained his maximalist war aims after more than four years of fighting, whether the Russian political system now depends on continued war, what another mobilization would mean for Russian society, and the circumstances under which Putin might accept a ceasefire. They also examine the risks of nuclear escalation, how Russians are responding to increasingly frequent Ukrainian attacks deep inside the country, what could come after Putin, and a fundamental question for Ukraine and Europe: what would it actually take to make Moscow conclude that continuing the war is more dangerous than stopping it? About the Dr. Olena Snigyr Dr. Olena Snigyr is a political scientist and expert on Russian foreign policy, European security, and Russian strategic narratives. She is a Senior Fellow at the Delphi Global Research Center and a Jean Monnet Fellow at the European University Institute. Previously, she spent more than 15 years at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, including as Head of its Foreign Policy Department. To connect and message with Mark on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/mark-mcnamee-58950910 To learn more, visit: https://ubn.network/ Listen to more episodes on Mission Matters: https://missionmatters.com/author/Mark-McNamee/ If you found this episode valuable, follow the podcast and share it with someone who wants to better understand the war in Ukraine.