Iran: Will Trump declare early victory and risk leaving hardliners in charge?

Iran: Will Trump declare early victory and risk leaving hardliners in charge?

Author: Chatham House March 6, 2026 Duration: 35:39

What does President Trump hope to achieve in Iran – a quick show of force, or long-term regime change? 

The US and Israel's long-threatened air strikes on Iran have materialized, and the Middle East is facing widespread disruption and a mounting death toll as the war spills across borders.

In this episode of Chatham House's international affairs podcast, our expert panel analyses the Trump administration's many stated motivations for the attack, whether there can be a clear-cut end game, and who is likely to take over in Iran after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

They also discuss the effect of the war on President Trump's popularity at home as mid-term elections loom, and the criticism levelled at UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer for doing, his detractors say, too little, too late.

Host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme; General Sir Richard Barrons, senior consulting fellow with the International Security Programme; and Laurel Rapp, director of the US and North America Programme. 

 

Produced by Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth.

 

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Hosted by Chatham House director Bronwen Maddox, Independent Thinking brings the institute’s private deliberations into the public ear. This isn’t a rehearsed lecture series, but a direct channel into candid, high-level discussions typically held behind closed doors. Maddox guides conversations with a carefully selected mix of leading policymakers, frontline journalists, and Chatham House’s own deep bench of experts, focusing on the international political issues that are shaping headlines and rewriting global strategies. The tone is analytical yet accessible, privileging substance and nuance over soundbites. Each episode feels like a privileged seat at a crucial roundtable, where complex topics-from shifting alliances and economic sanctions to climate diplomacy and conflict-are unpacked with clarity and intellectual rigor. Listeners gain a clearer understanding of the forces driving world events, hearing diverse perspectives clash and converge in real time. For anyone looking to move beyond the superficial news cycle and engage with the substantive arguments defining our geopolitics, this podcast offers an essential and thoughtful resource. It’s where informed opinion meets the pressing questions of our moment, fostering a deeper kind of political literacy.
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