What does poker strategy have to do with your tennis game? More than you think.
In this episode of Insider's Playbook, Mike Rogers sits down with Tommy Rounds — professional poker player and tennis strategy analyst — to explore one of the most overlooked problems in competitive senior tennis: predictability.
Most players over 50 spend their match prep time studying opponents. Tommy argues you're missing half the equation. The best poker players in the world spend 80 to 90 percent of their preparation analyzing their own tendencies — and the strongest tennis players do the same thing.
In this episode you'll discover:
- Why predictable players are essentially competing with their cards face up — and how opponents use that against you
- The "scout yourself" exercise: how to build your own scouting report before your opponent does it for you
- How Alcaraz uses the drop shot as a strategic bluff — and what that means for your game at any level
- The critical difference between pattern-based weaknesses and structural weaknesses, and why it changes how aggressively you should exploit each one
- One simple serve adjustment that makes you significantly harder to read starting in your very next match
- Why always going to the backhand on big points can quietly make you the most predictable player on the court
Whether you're competing in USTA League play, senior tournaments, or just trying to finally beat that one guy at your club who seems to read everything you do — this conversation will change how you think about match preparation.
Contact Tommy Rounds
📧 email: tommy@gamesetmatchanalytics.com
🖥️ Website: https://www.gamesetmatchanalytics.com
Chapter Timeline:
0:00 – Intro: Are You an Open Book on the Court?
1:31 – Meet Tommy Rounds
1:42 – What Does "Exploitable" Mean in Poker?
2:27 – How Pro Poker Players Balance Their Game
3:30 – What Happens When You're Too Predictable?
4:19 – How Predictability Shows Up in Tennis
5:40 – The Scout Yourself Exercise
7:21 – Scouting vs. Beating Yourself Up
8:03 – Even the Pros Have Tells
8:42 – Why We Keep Repeating What's Comfortable
0:09 – How to Bluff in Tennis (The Alcaraz Drop Shot)
12:08 – The Serve Variation Nobody Uses Enough
12:28 – Why Always Going to the Backhand Can Backfire
13:19 – Pattern Weaknesses vs. Structural Weaknesses
14:47 – One Simple Adjustment for Your Next Match
16:38 – Tommy's Final Advice
17:27 – Key Takeaways + Outro
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