Closing Out 2025: Setting the Stage for 2026
As 2025 comes to a close, the economic landscape offers both reassurance and reason for vigilance as we look ahead to 2026. Inflation has been the defining theme of the year, and recent data suggests meaningful progress. The latest CPI reading for November showed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, below expectations of 3.1%. While this data should be interpreted cautiously due to missing October inflation and unemployment figures, the broader takeaway is clear: inflation remains below 3% and is not rebounding aggressively, even amid ongoing tariff concerns. This marks a productive year in the fight against inflation. However, history suggests the story may not be over. Inflation has often moved in waves, with pauses followed by renewed surges. Current trends indicate we may be in one of those pause periods. Previous inflationary eras, such as those beginning in 1910, 1939, and 1972, saw inflation reaccelerate after similar lulls. One underappreciated factor bears close watching: money supply growth. Currently expanding at roughly 4.6%, money supply has historically been a leading indicator of renewed inflationary pressure. Should inflation move higher in 2026, it would likely remain a central driver of market behavior and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty. This is a dynamic that will continue to shape economic headlines and investment decision-making in the year ahead.
Lower Gas Prices and a Tailwind for Holiday Travel
One encouraging contributor to easing inflation is the recent decline in gas prices, welcome news during the busiest travel season of the year. AAA estimates that approximately 122.4 million Americans will drive more than 50 miles from home between now and year-end. On a typical day, the U.S. consumes about 376 million gallons of gasoline, a figure expected to rise significantly during this peak travel period. Even small changes in gas prices have an outsized economic impact. A 10-cent decrease at the pump translates into roughly $40 million in daily savings for the U.S. economy. Over the past year, gas prices have fallen about 10%, while oil has dropped more than 30%. This gap suggests gas prices may have further room to decline as they catch up with oil’s sustained downward trend. Lower fuel costs provide a dual benefit: easing inflationary pressure heading into 2026 and giving consumers a financial tailwind during the holiday shopping season. For households and the broader economy alike, this trend is a timely and positive development.
Market Rotation and the Santa Claus Rally
As the year winds down, attention often turns to the so-called “Santa Claus rally,” a seasonal market pattern that spans the final five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next. This rally does not begin until Christmas Eve, meaning expectations should remain measured until that window arrives. Historically, markets have tended to post gains during this short period, though outcomes are never guaranteed. Still, performance during these days is often viewed as an indicator heading into the new year. Beyond seasonal trends, market rotation has been a notable feature of recent months. While headline indexes may appear to have stalled in November and December, the underlying story is more constructive. The top-performing 10% of stocks from January through October, leaders for much of the year, have recently underperformed, while previously lagging segments have begun to outperform. This broadening of leadership is a hallmark of a healthier market. Recent milestones underscore this rotation. Bank of America reached an all-time high for the first time since 2006, and Cisco achieved a new high for the first time since 2000, nearly 25 years. These examples are not about individual stock recommendations and are about illustrating how leadership is spreading across sectors and styles, reinforcing the durability of the broader market environment.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
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Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller, AIF®
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
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