Market Volatility, Seasonal Strength, and Key Economic Signals
After an uptick in volatility throughout November, attention is now turning to December to determine whether seasonal strength can help stabilize or lift the markets. Historically, Thanksgiving week has marked the beginning of one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year. Given the market’s uneasiness in recent weeks, this timing is especially significant. One of the most closely watched developments is the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Recent labor market weakness has increased the likelihood of a rate cut, with current expectations hovering around an 80% probability. If the Fed moves forward with cuts, small-cap stocks could see renewed momentum. These companies have traditionally benefited the most following rate reductions, and a broadening of market performance beyond large-cap names would be a welcome shift. Higher interest rates have weighed heavily on small-cap companies in recent years, largely because their debt structures tend to be shorter-term and more sensitive to rate fluctuations. In contrast, large-cap companies typically hold longer-dated debt, making interest expense a smaller factor in their overall performance. Additional rate cuts would therefore be a meaningful tailwind for smaller companies, an important item on this year’s holiday market wish list.
Another key factor being monitored is consumer confidence. Recent readings have fallen short of expectations, reaching their lowest level since the tariff-related declines in early spring. Cost pressures, affordability concerns, and rising layoff announcements have all contributed to weaker sentiment. Surprisingly, however, corporate profitability has held up, with earnings growth continuing to diverge from consumer mood. The central question heading into 2026 is whether strong earnings can continue to support stock prices if consumer spending moderates. December will be a critical month for understanding the financial health of consumers during the holiday season and determining whether earnings expectations should be adjusted as the new year approaches. A variety of indicators, from market performance to rate decisions to consumer behavior, will help shape the outlook for 2026.
Strengthening Communication Through Technology and Social Media
With the holiday season being one of the busiest times of the year, effective communication becomes especially important. A key objective is to ensure clients and colleagues receive timely, accessible updates in ways that suit their preferences. To support this goal, content is shared across multiple platforms and formats, ranging from social media to email to the firm’s expanding series of podcasts and digital insights. Efforts continue to grow across channels including Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, X, and YouTube. These platforms allow for real-time outreach and make it easy for clients, colleagues, and followers to stay connected. The engagement and feedback received across these channels help guide future topics and ensure the content remains relevant and valuable./span>
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller, AIF®
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Holiday Market Wishlist first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
