Credit Cards Flash a Warning
Recent data highlights potential strain within the consumer sector. Three of the eight leading economic indicators we monitor are signaling concern, and one area drawing particular attention is credit card delinquencies. The percentage of Americans delinquent by 90 days or more has surpassed 12 percent, a level not seen since the Great Financial Crisis in 2009. Consumers have been a major engine for economic growth, supported by job strength and rising incomes. However, the question now is whether that momentum has come at the cost of greater debt stress. Rising delinquencies paired with potential increases in layoffs could signal pressure ahead. While layoff announcements surged earlier this year and have since stabilized, the underlying trend will be watched closely. Should credit challenges coincide with renewed job losses, the combination could pose a meaningful headwind for both the economy and the markets.
A Shift Toward Monetary Easing
On the policy front, the Federal Reserve has taken a significant step by preparing to end quantitative tightening on December 1. Since 2022, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by allowing bonds to roll off without reinvestment. As this reverses, maturing bonds will once again be reinvested, adding liquidity back into the system. While not framed as a formal rate cut, the liquidity impact of this change is roughly equivalent to a 25-basis-point easing move. The shift marks a meaningful pivot from the aggressive tightening cycle aimed at battling inflation. Additionally, consumers are expected to feel a positive boost from tax policy. Average tax refunds for 2026 are estimated to be approximately $1,000 higher per filer than in 2025, a roughly 43 percent increase and the largest jump since the post-COVID period. These factors may help offset the rising credit stress noted earlier, offering a counterweight of monetary support and consumer stimulus.
Confidence from Corporate Performance
Alongside policy decisions, financial markets are navigating a temporary gap in federal economic reporting due to a government shutdown. While this limits macro data visibility, clarity remains strong at the corporate level. Roughly 62 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter earnings, with growth exceeding expectations. Instead of the anticipated 9-10 percent earnings increase, companies are delivering above 14 percent growth. Ten of the eleven major sectors are outperforming forecasts, underscoring resilience across the business landscape. This solid corporate performance contrasts with mixed macroeconomic headlines and uncertainty about future Federal Reserve decisions. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has noted that policy direction remains uncertain given the lack of current government data, the strength in corporate fundamentals provides a constructive backdrop for the broader economy and markets heading into 2026.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller, AIF®
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
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