Broad Market Participation Signals Improving Market Health
After several years of narrow leadership, early signs suggest the market is finally beginning to broaden. Market expansion, measured by how many stocks are participating in overall gains, is a critical component of a healthy and sustainable bull market. While major indexes may continue to hit new highs, the underlying strength of the market depends on participation beyond just a small group of dominant companies. Recent data shows meaningful improvement. Roughly 70% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading above their 200-day moving average, a level that reflects strong internal momentum. In most market environments, readings above 50% are considered healthy, making the current figure particularly encouraging. Small-cap stocks are also beginning to outperform, a development that often confirms a change in market trend. When smaller companies start to lead, it suggests that investor confidence is expanding beyond large-cap leaders. This type of rotation is especially important during an ongoing bull market. Another notable metric is the percentage of stocks outperforming the index itself. About 65% of S&P 500 companies are beating the index year-to-date. While the calendar has only just turned to January, this would be the second-highest reading in the past 50 years if it persists. Together, these indicators point toward the type of market expansion that supports long-term growth.
Earnings Season Could Accelerate the Expansion
While broader participation is already taking shape, corporate earnings may determine whether this trend continues. The market is currently in the heart of earnings season, and this week represents one of the busiest reporting periods of the year. On Wednesday alone, approximately 20% of the S&P 500 will release earnings results. In total, these companies represent about $8 trillion in market capitalization. To put that number in context, the entire Shanghai Stock Exchange, the largest stock exchange outside the United States, has a total market capitalization of just under $8 trillion. In effect, an amount comparable to China’s entire equity market will be reporting earnings in a single day. If companies outside the largest mega-cap stocks continue to deliver strong earnings, the market could see further upside driven by this broader base of performance. That would be a constructive setup early in the year, particularly given the long-held belief that January’s trends often set the tone for the rest of the year. Sustained earnings growth could help reinforce the current expansion, creating a stronger and more durable uptrend, one that provides investors with a wider range of opportunities as the year unfolds.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
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Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller, AIF®
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
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