Election Years Often Bring Volatility, Not Lasting Market Changes
Investor questions surrounding the upcoming midterm election continue to increase, particularly regarding how election results could impact financial markets. Historically, heightened market volatility leading into an election is completely normal. Volatility has typically increased as Election Day approaches, with October often proving to be the most volatile month of the election cycle. Once election uncertainty passes, however, market volatility has generally declined. More importantly, history shows that investors should focus less on election outcomes and more on what happens afterward. Since 1950, every 12-month period following a midterm election has produced a positive return for the S&P 500, with an average gain of approximately 16.6%. Even the weakest post-election year generated a positive return. Political control has also shown surprisingly little impact on long-term market performance. Looking back to 1933, the S&P 500 has produced double-digit average annual returns regardless of which political party controlled Washington. While election outcomes certainly influence policy discussions, long-term market returns have been driven primarily by corporate earnings rather than politics. For long-term investors, maintaining focus on business fundamentals remains far more important than attempting to predict election results.
Tariffs, Consumer Spending, and Interest Rates Remain Key Economic Drivers
Trade policy continues to evolve following the Supreme Court’s ruling against tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In response, the administration implemented a temporary 10% universal tariff through Section 122, which expired after 150 days. Going forward, tariffs can now be implemented under Section 301, allowing for more permanent and country-specific tariff rates. While individual tariff rates may vary by trading partner, the overall economic impact compared to the previous structure remains relatively modest. Investors should expect continued headlines surrounding tariffs, but these developments are largely part of an anticipated policy transition rather than a significant shift in trade strategy. Beyond trade policy, consumer health remains one of the most important indicators for the broader economy. One metric receiving close attention combines average mortgage rates with average gasoline prices. Historically, when mortgage rates exceed 6% and gasoline prices rise above $4 per gallon, the combined burden begins placing meaningful financial pressure on consumers. Sustained periods above this threshold have often coincided with mid-cycle economic slowdowns or, in some cases, recessions. Despite these headwinds, the U.S. consumer has remained remarkably resilient. However, prolonged pressure from elevated borrowing costs and energy prices could eventually begin to weaken consumer spending, making this an important trend to monitor. Interest rate expectations also continue to shift. Current market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates in the near term, with some investors now anticipating the possibility of additional rate hikes later this year. As leadership at the Federal Reserve evolves, markets will closely watch how policymakers respond to inflation, consumer strength, and broader economic conditions. Any unexpected shift toward higher interest rates would represent a meaningful change from the expectations many investors held entering the year and could influence both market sentiment and economic growth.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller, AIF®
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
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