Episode 2289: Gary Marcus on how Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is, in the long run, inevitable
Gary Marcus is amongst the world’s leading skeptics on the AI revolution. So it’s worth taking note when Marcus admits that “of course we are getting to AGI eventually”. No, he says, artificial general intelligence (AGI) won’t take place in 2027 or perhaps even 2050. But it will happen, he confidently predicts, by 2100. So that only underlines Marcus’ argument, made in his acclaimed 2024 book Taming Silicon Valley, of the desperate need to regulate AI before it regulates us. And it also contextualizes our short term preoccupation with corporate pioneers of generative AI technology like OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind and xAI. As Marcus argues, it’s likely that the dominant AI technology that will get us to AGI by the end of the 21st century hasn’t even been invented yet.
Gary Marcus is a leading voice in artificial intelligence, well known for his challenges to contemporary AI. He is a scientist and best-selling author and was founder and CEO of Geometric.AI, a machine learning company acquired by Uber. A Professor Emeritus at NYU, he is the author of five previous books, including the bestseller Guitar Zero, Kluge (one of The Economist's eight best books on the brain and consciousness), and Rebooting AI (with Ernest Davis), one of Forbes's seven must-read books on AI.
Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children
Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Can Billionaire Backlash Save Democracy? Pepper Culpepper on our Age of Corporate Scandal
Yes, It's Fascism: Jon Rauch on Trump and the F Word
Californian True Crime: A Killing in Cannabis
Rage in the American Republic
Documenting America: How to See Beyond the Algorithm
Whoosh! That Really Was a Week in Tech: Winner-Take-All AI and the $1 Trillion Selloff
Catching More Than Passes From Bobby: Stephen Schlesinger on what RFK Can Still Teach America
Your Data Will Be Used Against You: Andrew Guthrie Ferguson on Policing in the Age of Self-Surveillance
To Catch a Fascist: The Ethics of Unmasking the Radical Right
How Meat Can Save the Planet: The Vegan Case
It's Always Exploding Somewhere: Why No Weapon Is Ever Perfect
Where's the Countercultural Outrage to Trump?
AI's Adolescent Crisis: And It's Still Just a Toddler