Episode 2289: Gary Marcus on how Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is, in the long run, inevitable
Gary Marcus is amongst the world’s leading skeptics on the AI revolution. So it’s worth taking note when Marcus admits that “of course we are getting to AGI eventually”. No, he says, artificial general intelligence (AGI) won’t take place in 2027 or perhaps even 2050. But it will happen, he confidently predicts, by 2100. So that only underlines Marcus’ argument, made in his acclaimed 2024 book Taming Silicon Valley, of the desperate need to regulate AI before it regulates us. And it also contextualizes our short term preoccupation with corporate pioneers of generative AI technology like OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind and xAI. As Marcus argues, it’s likely that the dominant AI technology that will get us to AGI by the end of the 21st century hasn’t even been invented yet.
Gary Marcus is a leading voice in artificial intelligence, well known for his challenges to contemporary AI. He is a scientist and best-selling author and was founder and CEO of Geometric.AI, a machine learning company acquired by Uber. A Professor Emeritus at NYU, he is the author of five previous books, including the bestseller Guitar Zero, Kluge (one of The Economist's eight best books on the brain and consciousness), and Rebooting AI (with Ernest Davis), one of Forbes's seven must-read books on AI.
Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children
Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Episode 2057: KEEN ON America featuring R. Derek Black
Episode 2056: Kyle Paoletta exposes the 2024 Republican Primaries as "Farce"
Episode 2055: Michael Ignatieff on a history of his privileges
Episode 2054: Keith Teare follows the money of the online creative economy
Episode 2053: Vince Houghton on how the Cold War transformed Miami into America's most Covert City
Episode 2052: Bryan Caplan on the economic and philosophical case for the radical deregulation of the housing industry
Episode 2051: Mohamed Amer Meziane offers an ecological and racial history of seculization
Episode 250: Andrew J Scott on why we should care about old people
Episode 2049: KEEN ON AMERICA featuring Samyr Laine
Episode 2048: Tobias Buck on the Holocaust on Trial in the 21st Century
Episode 2047: Elisa New on Poetry in America
Episode 2046: David Faris on why American kids are all left these days
Episode 2045: Lisa Kaltenegger on the inevitability of the existence of non-human life somewhere in the Universe