Episode 2289: Gary Marcus on how Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is, in the long run, inevitable
Gary Marcus is amongst the world’s leading skeptics on the AI revolution. So it’s worth taking note when Marcus admits that “of course we are getting to AGI eventually”. No, he says, artificial general intelligence (AGI) won’t take place in 2027 or perhaps even 2050. But it will happen, he confidently predicts, by 2100. So that only underlines Marcus’ argument, made in his acclaimed 2024 book Taming Silicon Valley, of the desperate need to regulate AI before it regulates us. And it also contextualizes our short term preoccupation with corporate pioneers of generative AI technology like OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind and xAI. As Marcus argues, it’s likely that the dominant AI technology that will get us to AGI by the end of the 21st century hasn’t even been invented yet.
Gary Marcus is a leading voice in artificial intelligence, well known for his challenges to contemporary AI. He is a scientist and best-selling author and was founder and CEO of Geometric.AI, a machine learning company acquired by Uber. A Professor Emeritus at NYU, he is the author of five previous books, including the bestseller Guitar Zero, Kluge (one of The Economist's eight best books on the brain and consciousness), and Rebooting AI (with Ernest Davis), one of Forbes's seven must-read books on AI.
Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children
Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Why Social Media Still Matters: Jeff Jarvis on the origins of blogging , what went wrong at Twitter and Facebook, and how he still believes in the social potential of the Internet
The 1963 Birmingham Campaign: Paul Kix on the ten weeks that changed America
Is American Capitalism Irredeemably Rotten? Brendan Ballou on Private Equity's Plan to Pillage and Plunder the United States
HELL TO PAY: Michael Lind explains how the suppression of wages and unions is destroying America
From Solitaire to Heartstopper: Alice Oseman on asexuality, authentic story telling and book banning
The First Lady of World War II: Shannon McKenna Schmidt on Eleanor Roosevelt's remarkable heroism during the War
The Miracle That the United States Needs Right Now: John Blake's personal story on how to get beyond race and racism in America today
Telling Our Stories Our Way: Angeline Boulley on the need to get beyond "trauma "in Native American literature
The Promise of Second Life: Amber Atherton on the rise (and fall) of virtual communities
Excellent Advice for Living (and Dying): Kevin Kelly on how to become improbable versions of ourselves and why we should be intimate with our ancestors
The Art of Fictionalizing Non-Fiction: Katie Hafner on Kafka, Silicon Valley and the truish story behind her novel "The Boys"
Trump Was a Joke: Sophia McClennen on how satire makes sense of a President who didn't
Free and Equal: Daniel Chandler on what a fair society should look like