Everything Is Possible, Nothing Is Inevitable: Why AI Might Be the Ultimate Scarcity Trap
Is the promise of AI abundance Silicon Valley’s biggest lie? That Was The Week publisher Keith Teare argues that while AI will inevitably reduce human labor and increase productivity, the real question isn't economic—it's about distribution. Who, exactly, benefits from all this abundance? Currently, it’s private companies like OpenAI and Google that own the technology; not you and I, the public. This creates what Keith describes as a fork in the road: either a techno-feudal nightmare where few own everything, or a techno-socialist cornucopia where everyone prospers. He points to points to experiments like Sam Altman's Worldcoin as potential solutions, but warns that without deliberate human action, abundance could easily become the ultimate scarcity trap.
As you can tell from this conversation, I'm much more skeptical than Keith. While he sees inevitable productivity gains leading to a potential utopia, I see Silicon Valley's promises of abudance as largely self-serving fantasy. There is no fork in the road and, with or without human agency, everything certainly isn’t possible. Today’s technological reality is growing inequality, not infinite distribution. The fact that Keith's most hopeful model is Sam Altman's chilling crypto scheme for paying people to scan and share their irises is particularly unconvincing. History shows us that new technologies, while promising a cornucopian future, always create new forms of scarcity. The people promoting AI abundance—Zuckerberg, Musk, Altman et al—are painfully antisocial, yet preach about more social time for family and friends. Meanwhile, teachers and journalists and lawyers are already being forced into retirement. Without concrete mechanisms for the redistribution of AI derived wealth, abundance will likely benefit the few who own the technology, not the many who actually need it.
five key takeaways
1. The Economics vs. Distribution Problem AI will inevitably make production cheaper and more efficient, but there's no built-in mechanism ensuring everyone benefits. The proceeds will flow to private companies unless something changes.
2. The Fork in the Road We face two possible futures: a feudal system where a few own everything, or a utopia where abundance benefits everyone. The outcome depends entirely on human choices, not technological inevitability.
3. The End of Required Labor While productivity gains are inevitable, the complete elimination of paid work isn't guaranteed. But as AI becomes cheaper than human labor, employers will have no economic incentive to hire people.
4. Democrats Need the Abundance Narrative The Democratic Party can't win by just redistributing a shrinking pie. They need policies that grow the economy and make abundance politically viable—free healthcare and education require rapid wealth expansion.
5. Experiments Are Already Happening Projects like Sam Altman's Worldcoin (giving everyone AI profits via crypto) and discussions of Universal Income show that practical wealth distribution mechanisms are being tested, not just theorized.
Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Episode 2300: Sandra Matz makes the Case for a Data-Driven Science of Predicting and Changing Human Behavior
Episode 2299: Jill Kastner explains why everything old is new again in international politics
Episode 2298: Adam Chandler on the fatal contradiction at the heart of American capitalism
Episode 2297: Louis Ferrante on why the Mafia Killed JFK
Episode 2296: Adi Jaffe on how to free yourself from addiction forever
Episode 2295: Paula Whyman on how to save the American environment - one wild mountaintop at a time
Episode 2294: Larry Downes' non-MAGA plan to shrink the Federal bureaucracy
Episode 2293: David Masciotra on why Kamala Harris should have gone on the Joe Rogan show
Episode 2292: Chris Schroeder on how America now swims in an ocean of black swans
Episode 2291: Michael Scott-Baumann on the hopelessness of the Palestinian situation
Episode 2290: Marshall Poe on why 2024 was a bad year for most podcasters
Episode 2289: Gary Marcus on how Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is, in the long run, inevitable
Episode 2288: Simon Kuper on the chilling parallels between MAGA America and Apartheid South Africa