Everything Is Possible, Nothing Is Inevitable: Why AI Might Be the Ultimate Scarcity Trap
Is the promise of AI abundance Silicon Valley’s biggest lie? That Was The Week publisher Keith Teare argues that while AI will inevitably reduce human labor and increase productivity, the real question isn't economic—it's about distribution. Who, exactly, benefits from all this abundance? Currently, it’s private companies like OpenAI and Google that own the technology; not you and I, the public. This creates what Keith describes as a fork in the road: either a techno-feudal nightmare where few own everything, or a techno-socialist cornucopia where everyone prospers. He points to points to experiments like Sam Altman's Worldcoin as potential solutions, but warns that without deliberate human action, abundance could easily become the ultimate scarcity trap.
As you can tell from this conversation, I'm much more skeptical than Keith. While he sees inevitable productivity gains leading to a potential utopia, I see Silicon Valley's promises of abudance as largely self-serving fantasy. There is no fork in the road and, with or without human agency, everything certainly isn’t possible. Today’s technological reality is growing inequality, not infinite distribution. The fact that Keith's most hopeful model is Sam Altman's chilling crypto scheme for paying people to scan and share their irises is particularly unconvincing. History shows us that new technologies, while promising a cornucopian future, always create new forms of scarcity. The people promoting AI abundance—Zuckerberg, Musk, Altman et al—are painfully antisocial, yet preach about more social time for family and friends. Meanwhile, teachers and journalists and lawyers are already being forced into retirement. Without concrete mechanisms for the redistribution of AI derived wealth, abundance will likely benefit the few who own the technology, not the many who actually need it.
five key takeaways
1. The Economics vs. Distribution Problem AI will inevitably make production cheaper and more efficient, but there's no built-in mechanism ensuring everyone benefits. The proceeds will flow to private companies unless something changes.
2. The Fork in the Road We face two possible futures: a feudal system where a few own everything, or a utopia where abundance benefits everyone. The outcome depends entirely on human choices, not technological inevitability.
3. The End of Required Labor While productivity gains are inevitable, the complete elimination of paid work isn't guaranteed. But as AI becomes cheaper than human labor, employers will have no economic incentive to hire people.
4. Democrats Need the Abundance Narrative The Democratic Party can't win by just redistributing a shrinking pie. They need policies that grow the economy and make abundance politically viable—free healthcare and education require rapid wealth expansion.
5. Experiments Are Already Happening Projects like Sam Altman's Worldcoin (giving everyone AI profits via crypto) and discussions of Universal Income show that practical wealth distribution mechanisms are being tested, not just theorized.
Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Five of the Non-Fictional Best: Bethanne Patrick picks her favorite non-fiction books for 2023
How Not To Age: Dr Michael Greger offers a simple dietary approach to getting healthier as we get older
Why it's time stop declaring war on everything: David Keen on the "Wreckonomics" of how we now find ourselves locked into so many failed economic, environmental and political policies
How our brains mirror the history of human evolution: Min W. Jung on the neuroscience of imagination and abstract thinking
A Return to Normal Abnormality in Silicon Valley: Keith Teare on why even some of the most highly capitalized AI start-ups are now running out of runway and will not survive
In Praise of Ineffective Altruism: Amy Schiller on how philanthropy went wrong and how to fix it
Should we let go of Philip Roth? Hannah Gold gets into Roth's mind, his hands and his followers
In Defense of Trash Talk: Rafi Kohan on Muhammed Ali, Babe Ruth, Michael Jordan, Elon Musk and why talking smack is as old as the Bible
Why even the smartest machine vision won't eliminate bias: Jill Walker Rettberg on how algorithms are changing the way we see and are seen by the world
When Language Was Up For Grabs: Ben Lerner warns against falling in love once again with the promise of digital technology to democratize language
The First Neo-Liberal or the Last Conservative? Jennifer Burns on Milton Friedman, the most controversial American economist of the 20th century
Why American humor isn't really being cancelled by the woke police: Kliph Nesteroff's history of showbiz and its perennial culture wars
Why all great geniuses are also rebels: Bulent Atalay on how Shakespeare, Da Vinci, Newton, Beethoven and Einstein all shared similarly transgressive minds