The Abundance Trap: Who Owns Our Future When Robots Do All the Work?
That Was The Week publisher Keith Teare argues we're “accelerating” toward an age of “abundance” in which AI and automation will slash production costs to near-zero, freeing humans to pursue hobbies instead of jobs. I’m less optimistic. I don’t disagree with Keith’s premise that AI will profoundly change not just our economy but our society and politics. But abundance? Who will own these AI factories? How will profits and wealth be distributed? Keith envisions massive corporate tax rates (up to 98%) redistributing automated profits, while I question whether people actually want a post-work world of ubiquitous stamp collectors or novelists. Our debate captures the gulf between Silicon Valley's utopian promises and the harsh political realities of the 2020s. Will technological abundance liberate humanity or concentrate power among tech giants and impoverish the rest of us?
Five Key Takeaways
* The Economics Are Clear, Politics Are Messy - Keith argues we're economically heading toward abundance through AI/automation reducing costs to near-zero, but admits the political question of wealth distribution remains "contested" and could lead to either democracy or autocracy.
* Work vs. Hobbies Debate - Keith believes most people work jobs they don't love just to afford the things they do love, so abundance would free them to pursue passions. I counter that most people don't have hobbies and actually like having jobs.
* The 98% Solution - Keith's preferred path to shared abundance: massive corporate tax rates on automated production (up to 98%) to redistribute AI-generated wealth, creating something "better than the Swedish system."
* Big Tech Will Lead, Like It or Not - We both agree government won't drive this transformation—it'll be Google, Microsoft, OpenAI and others. The question is whether they'll be regulated/taxed or become "modern-day empires."
* Scarcity in the Age of Abundance - It’s a paradox. While promising intellectual abundance, we're seeing increased physical scarcity (land, immigration restrictions, declining birth rates) driven by political insecurity about the future.
Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Episode 2315: Andrew McAfee finds reasons to be cheerful about the next 20 years of our tech century
Episode 2314: Richard Socher on why AI might be good for humanity
Episode 2313: Esther Dyson on being the Aunt and Court jEsther of the Tech Industry
Episode 2312: Robert D. Kaplan on the decadence of Trump's America
Episode 2311: Martin Puchner looks forward to 2045 when the whole world will have access to high quality education
Episode 2310: Why Progressives must become "Yes People" on Technology
Episode 2309: Michal Kosinski on the corrosive impact of social media on democracy and freedom
Episode 2308: Kenneth Cukier mourns the biliousness of our Big Data age
Episode 2307: Ece Temelkuran on why she still retains faith in the future
Episode 2306: Albert Wenger on how to save the Internet, Capitalism and the Planet
Episode 2305: Kurt Gray explains why we fight about morality and politics
Episode 2304: Lisa Genova on the connection between bipolar disorder and standup comedy
Episode 2303: Isaac Stanley-Becker on a Europe without Borders