The Math Behind Cartel Recruitment in Mexico

The Math Behind Cartel Recruitment in Mexico

Author: AS/COA Online, Council of the Americas, Americas Society, Carin Zissis April 8, 2026 Duration: 34:44
After a February military operation led to the death of Nemesio Rubén “El Mencho” Oseguera, Mexican authorities searched the cartel leader’s cabin and uncovered logs showing that low-level members of El Mencho’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel earned as little as $140 per week. Many people were surprised by how little the cartel lookouts and hitmen earn, given that their jobs can be, quite literally, deadly. Despite that, the number of people working for these crime groups could fill Estadio Azteca, the stadium where the World Cup kickoff will take place, about two times over. In this week's episode, Complexity Science Hub’s Dr. Rafael Prieto-Curiel covers why stemming cartel recruitment is crucial for curbing violence in Mexico. The mathematician coauthored a groundbreaking study calculating that, with 175,000 members, cartels represent Mexico’s fifth-largest employer. Moreover, he estimates that they count as the country’s top recruiter, given that they have to repeatedly replenish their ranks following arrests, killings, and disappearances. “They are preventing their own collapse,” he tells AS/COA’s Carin Zissis.

Latin America in Focus is a production of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, offering a nuanced look at the forces shaping the region. This podcast moves beyond headlines to explore the interconnected stories of policy, markets, and societal change. Each episode features conversations with policymakers, analysts, and on-the-ground experts, providing context to complex issues like trade agreements, electoral shifts, and cultural movements. Listeners gain a clearer understanding of the business climate, investment opportunities, and the political dynamics influencing daily life from Mexico to Argentina. The discussion is grounded in research and a deep network of regional knowledge, aiming to connect global audiences to the pivotal trends redefining Latin America. Whether examining a new regulatory framework, the impact of a social movement, or the economic prospects of a specific industry, the analysis is both rigorous and accessible. Tune in for a thoughtful and forward-looking perspective that treats the region not as a monolith, but as a diverse collection of nations each with its own narrative. This podcast serves as an essential resource for anyone looking to deepen their comprehension of a rapidly evolving part of the world.
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