"How to game the METR plot" by shash42

"How to game the METR plot" by shash42

Author: LessWrong December 21, 2025 Duration: 12:05
TL;DR: In 2025, we were in the 1-4 hour range, which has only 14 samples in METR's underlying data. The topic of each sample is public, making it easy to game METR horizon length measurements for a frontier lab, sometimes inadvertently. Finally, the “horizon length” under METR's assumptions might be adding little information beyond benchmark accuracy. None of this is to criticize METR—in research, its hard to be perfect on the first release. But I’m tired of what is being inferred from this plot, pls stop!

14 prompts ruled AI discourse in 2025

The METR horizon length plot was an excellent idea: it proposed measuring the length of tasks models can complete (in terms of estimated human hours needed) instead of accuracy. I'm glad it shifted the community toward caring about long-horizon tasks. They are a better measure of automation impacts, and economic outcomes (for example, labor laws are often based on number of hours of work).

However, I think we are overindexing on it, far too much. Especially the AI Safety community, which based on it, makes huge updates in timelines, and research priorities. I suspect (from many anecdotes, including roon's) the METR plot has influenced significant investment [...]

---

Outline:

(01:24) 14. prompts ruled AI discourse in 2025

(04:58) To improve METR horizon length, train on cybersecurity contests

(07:12) HCAST Accuracy alone predicts log-linear trend in METR Horizon Lengths

---

First published:
December 20th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2RwDgMXo6nh42egoC/how-to-game-the-metr-plot

---



Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

roon tweets:
2 popular AI safety researchers making massive updates based on the Claude 4.5 Opus result today, 200+ likes, within 6 hours.

Dive into a stream of ideas where technology, culture, philosophy, and society intersect, all through the lens of the LessWrong (Curated & Popular) podcast. This isn't a traditional talk show with hosts, but rather a curated audio library of the most impactful writing from the LessWrong community. Each episode is a narration of a full post, selected for its high value and interesting arguments, focusing on pieces that have been formally curated or have garnered significant community approval. You'll hear clear, thoughtful readings of essays that tackle complex topics like artificial intelligence, rational thinking, moral philosophy, and the forces shaping our future. The audio format lets you absorb these dense, often paradigm-shifting concepts during a commute or a walk, turning written analysis into an immersive listening experience. This particular feed is deliberately selective, offering a manageable stream of the community's standout work. For those who want an even deeper dive into the discussion, there are broader feeds available. The LessWrong (Curated & Popular) podcast serves as an intellectual filter, delivering the signal through the noise and inviting you to engage with some of the most rigorously examined ideas on the internet.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
Podcast Episodes
“Claude 4.5 Opus’ Soul Document” by null [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 1:19:57
Summary As far as I understand and uncovered, a document for the character training for Claude is compressed in Claude's weights. The full document can be found at the "Anthropic Guidelines" heading at the end. The Gist…
“Alignment remains a hard, unsolved problem” by null [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 23:23
Thanks to (in alphabetical order) Joshua Batson, Roger Grosse, Jeremy Hadfield, Jared Kaplan, Jan Leike, Jack Lindsey, Monte MacDiarmid, Francesco Mosconi, Chris Olah, Ethan Perez, Sara Price, Ansh Radhakrishnan, Fabien…
“Video games are philosophy’s playground” by Rachel Shu [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 31:50
Crypto people have this saying: "cryptocurrencies are macroeconomics' playground." The idea is that blockchains let you cheaply spin up toy economies to test mechanisms that would be impossibly expensive or unethical to…
“Stop Applying And Get To Work” by plex [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 2:52
TL;DR: Figure out what needs doing and do it, don't wait on approval from fellowships or jobs. If you... Have short timelines Have been struggling to get into a position in AI safety Are able to self-motivate your effort…
“Gemini 3 is Evaluation-Paranoid and Contaminated” by null [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 14:59
TL;DR: Gemini 3 frequently thinks it is in an evaluation when it is not, assuming that all of its reality is fabricated. It can also reliably output the BIG-bench canary string, indicating that Google likely trained on a…

«1...678910