Germany’s second China shock

Germany’s second China shock

Author: ECFR August 21, 2026 Duration: 35:58

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s DARE* initiative, and Andrew Small, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to examine the growing impact of the “China shock 2.0” on Germany and Europe. 


A new wave of Chinese competition, driven by overcapacity and state-backed industrial strength, is hitting sectors such as car manufacturing, chemicals and machine tools. Germany is at the epicentre, with mounting job losses raising questions about Europe’s long-term economic resilience and competitiveness. The crisis is reshaping German politics, exposing government divisions and putting pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz ahead of September’s potentially divisive regional elections.

Together, Mark, Janka and Andrew discuss the policy options being considered in Brussels and in European capitals—from emergency trade measures to new industrial strategies. Can Europe protect its industrial base without triggering a damaging escalation with China? Is Germany able to lead a coherent European response amid its own political turbulence?


This podcast episode was recorded 12th August 2026.


Bookshelf

China Shock 2.0: The Cost of Germany’s Complacency, by Brad Setser and Sander Tordoir

The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms, by Andrew Small

Dear Britain, by Annette Dittert

 [AS1]Just flagging as we usually have the exact date (or do we not want to do it this time?)


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Each week, Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes cuts through the noise of global headlines to explore the deeper forces at play. Curated by Mark Leonard, who directs the European Council on Foreign Relations, this ECFR podcast brings together leading thinkers, policymakers, and analysts from across Europe and the wider world. Their conversations move beyond the day's news to debate the underlying policies, strategic ideas, and geopolitical shifts that are actively shaping our future. The focus is consistently on understanding Europe's place in a complex international landscape, examining how it responds to crises and where it can exercise influence. Recognized for its quality with PolicyLab's 2019 award for best podcast on EU politics, this series delivers concise, substantive dialogue that fits into a busy schedule. As part of the EuroPod network, it offers a vital perspective for anyone looking to grasp not just what is happening, but why it matters. Tune in for a regular dose of informed discussion that connects the dots between events, decisions, and their long-term consequences.
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