How to defend Ukraine after a ceasefire

As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, negotiations are finally entering a productive phase. Mark Leonard is joined by Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, and author of the new report, “An Armed Nonalignment Model for Ukraine’s Postwar Security”, to examine Ukraine’s security status and US foreign policy towards it. Mark and Jennifer explore her proposal that Ukraine should position itself as an “armed nonalignment” state, the future of the transatlantic alliance, and America’s National Defense Strategy.  

Can Ukraine be nonaligned but also “armed to the teeth”? Could it become a porcupine that Russia cannot swallow? What should Europe and Ukraine do if future US foreign policy focuses more on the Indo-Pacific and the western hemisphere? Could Russia feasibly invade Ukraine again? And what happens if it does? 

Bookshelf 

An Armed Nonalignment Model for Ukraine’s Postwar Security by Jennifer Kavanagh  

The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia by Jennifer and Jeremy Shapiro 

Season 4 of Bridgerton on Netflix  

Susie Wiles, JD Vance, and the “Junkyard Dogs”: The White House Chief of Staff on Trump’s Second Term (Part 1 of 2) by Vanity Fair  

Susie Wiles Talks Epstein Files, Pete Hegseth’s War Tactics, Retribution, and More (Part 2 of 2) by Vanity Fair 

This podcast was recorded on 30th January 2026 

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