Predictions and Reckonings: From 2025 to 2026

Predictions and Reckonings: From 2025 to 2026

Author: ECFR January 2, 2026 Duration: 23:16

This week Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, research director at ECFR, for their annual end-of-year tradition: marking last year’s predictions and making ten bold forecasts for the year ahead. They look at how their 2025 calls stacked up—from Trump to German politics to Ukraine, China and migration—before turning their attention to 2026.

 

Will the European far right continue its advance? Is an uneasy ceasefire in Ukraine finally within reach? How might US policy on Iran, China and Europe evolve under Trump? And what role will AI, energy security and debt crises play in shaping the year to come?

 

This podcast was recorded on December 30th 2025.

 

Bookshelf

The Dream Factory: London’s First Playhouse and the Making of William Shakespeare by Daniel Swift

Ones and Tooze by Adam Tooze

Wer verteidigt Europa?: Die neuen Kriegsgefahren und was wir tun müssen, um uns zu schützen by Jana Puglierin

Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics when the rules fail by Mark Leonard (April 2026)

 


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Each week, Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes cuts through the noise of global headlines to explore the deeper forces at play. Curated by Mark Leonard, who directs the European Council on Foreign Relations, this ECFR podcast brings together leading thinkers, policymakers, and analysts from across Europe and the wider world. Their conversations move beyond the day's news to debate the underlying policies, strategic ideas, and geopolitical shifts that are actively shaping our future. The focus is consistently on understanding Europe's place in a complex international landscape, examining how it responds to crises and where it can exercise influence. Recognized for its quality with PolicyLab's 2019 award for best podcast on EU politics, this series delivers concise, substantive dialogue that fits into a busy schedule. As part of the EuroPod network, it offers a vital perspective for anyone looking to grasp not just what is happening, but why it matters. Tune in for a regular dose of informed discussion that connects the dots between events, decisions, and their long-term consequences.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 50

Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes
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