AI for Materials: Breakthrough or Illusion?

AI for Materials: Breakthrough or Illusion?

Author: Hugo Rauch December 19, 2025 Duration: 45:28

Sign up to New Wave's newsletter.

***

This week on New Wave Weekly:

👉 AI won’t magically invent new materials

AlphaFold worked because biology had great data. Inorganic materials don’t. Sparse datasets, missing thermodynamics, and poor characterization remain the biggest blockers.

👉 The real moat is synthesis, not models

From rare-earth-free magnets to catalysts, value is created in the lab: making, characterizing, and scaling materials that actually work in the real world.

👉 Vertical beats generalist (for now)

Foundational models are capital-intensive moonshots. Highly verticalized plays, magnets, catalysts, specific industrial use cases, have a much clearer path to market.

👉 Commercialization is brutally hard

Discovery is step one. Producing at scale, at cost, and getting industry adoption is where most materials stories break, graphene being the cautionary tale.

👉 Europe’s materials moment?

With critical minerals concentrated in China, supply-chain security is creating real pull from industrial players, not just curiosity, but urgency.

***

Wave Makers:

Matt - Voyager Ventures

Robina - Contrarian

Vera - Apex Ventures

Hugo - New Wave



This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newwavenewsletter.substack.com

Hugo Rauch hosts New Wave, a podcast that lives at the intersection of business ambition and scientific reality. This isn't about distant predictions or abstract science; it's a grounded exploration of the technologies and companies being built right now to address our environmental future. Each episode focuses on the practical journey, dissecting the models, the breakthroughs, and the hard decisions that define the climate tech landscape. You'll hear from founders, researchers, and investors who are actively shaping this space, getting into the specifics of what works, what doesn't, and why. The conversations move beyond hype to examine the tangible mechanics of creating viable solutions, from energy storage and sustainable materials to carbon removal and regenerative agriculture. It’s for anyone who thinks about the climate challenge not just as a crisis, but as a complex and urgent field of innovation. By tuning into this podcast, you gain a clearer understanding of the economic forces and scientific principles driving the next generation of environmental solutions. New Wave connects the dots between the lab, the boardroom, and the impact we need to see in the world, offering a sober yet optimistic look at where substantive progress is truly being made.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 89

New Wave.
Podcast Episodes
Jared O'Leary (SirenOpt): Fixing Advanced Manufacturing [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 32:56
Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 The Invisible Problem Inside Every FactoryWhy advanced manufacturing is still wildly inefficient — and how real-time sensing could unlock the next wave of…
Otto Birnbaum (Revent): Conviction, Follow-Ons & 100x Outcomes [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 42:21
Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 Obsession, Timing & the 50x DecisionWhat it really takes to back, and double down on, a climate breakout.We’re joined by Otto Birnbaum, Founding Partner a…
Thor Gutierrez (Sirona): Is Direct Air Capture a Distraction? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 52:00
Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 Removing CO₂ at 420 ppmIs direct air capture a distraction, or a necessity for net zero?We’re joined by Thor Gutierrez, Founder & CEO of Sirona Technologi…
Fabian Heilemann (AENU): The 2026 Playbook for Climate VCs [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 43:48
Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 No Green Premium, The 2026 Climate VC PlaybookWhy price parity, resilience, and market-rate returns are the only strategy that works now.In 2022, climate…
Sarah Sclarsic (Voyager): Electrification is the New Default [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 39:03
Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****Listen now:Apple // Spotify // YouTube🌊 The Inflection Point Nobody NoticedWhy electrification, materials innovation, and better unit economics are reshapin…
Fabien Koutchekian (Genomines): Can Plants Replace Mines? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 58:20
Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 Mining Without MinesHow plants could unlock the next wave of critical metals.We’re joined by Fabien, Co-Founder & CEO of Genomines, a company rethinking h…
Katie Marsh (Recupere): Fixing Europe’s Copper Problem [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 33:32
Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 Building a Sovereign Copper SupplyWe’re joined by Katie Marsh, Co-Founder & CEO of Recupere Metals, a next-gen industrial company rethinking how copper is…
Jacob Bro (2150): Closing a €210M Fund for Urban Climate Tech [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 36:45
Subscribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****🌊 Building Cities Without Breaking the SystemWhy urban climate tech must be faster, better, and cheaper to truly scale.We’re joined by Jacob Bro, General Pa…
Martijn Lopes Cardozo (Regeneration VC): Circular Economy VC Playbook [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 53:19
Subcribe to the newsletter:New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack****Thank you to this week’s sponsor:Accelerating Impact - a non-profit advancing impact finance by mobilizing capital and running free accelerator programs for…