Forecasting the Future with Kalshi: America’s First Regulated Prediction Market

Forecasting the Future with Kalshi: America’s First Regulated Prediction Market

Author: Conviction October 31, 2024 Duration: 35:36
In this week’s episode of No Priors, Sarah sits down with Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi—the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the U.S. They dive into Kalshi’s recent victory to legalize election betting, explore ethical questions around trading on elections, and discuss whether prediction markets can offer more accuracy than traditional polls. Tarek shares insights on the history of futures markets, the line between gambling and financial trading, and the psychology behind betting. Plus, Sarah makes a live election bet, and Tarek reveals some of Kalshi’s most intriguing markets. Sign up for new podcasts every week. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com Follow us on Twitter: @NoPriorsPod | @Saranormous | @EladGil | @MansourTarek Show Notes:  0:00 Introduction 1:22 Sarah makes a live election bet on Kalshi 3:35 Getting approved and regulated by CFTC 5:48 Going up against the CFTC to legalize election betting 7:21 Debating the ethics of trading on elections 8:12 Gambling vs. trading  9:12 Context and purpose of futures markets 12:38 The human psychology behind speculating /Humans conditioned to risk taking 17:17 Building a healthy exchange and scaling liquidity  19:30 Introducing leverage and working with clearinghouses 22:29 Polls vs. prediction markets 24:59 Conditional markets 26:38 What makes Kalshi’s markets accurate 31:29 Tarek’s insights on the most interesting trades and markets on the platform

Elad Gil and Sarah Guo guide conversations in No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups that cut straight to the core of what's happening now. This isn't about abstract futures; it's grounded in dialogues with the very people building and shaping the field-leading AI engineers, pioneering researchers, and the founders turning theory into reality. Each episode tackles the pressing, often daunting questions that define this technological inflection point. You'll hear them explore the practical pathways and hurdles toward AGI, debate which industries are genuinely poised for transformation, and examine how the state-of-the-art in research translates into real-world products and societal shifts. The discussions naturally span the impact on commerce, culture, and the very structure of how we live and work. Produced by Conviction, this podcast serves as an essential, clear-eyed resource for anyone looking to move beyond the hype and understand the forces driving the AI revolution. Sarah Guo, a startup investor, and Elad Gil bring their direct experience to these conversations, ensuring every interview provides substantive insight you can use.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 100

No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups
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